THE CAUCUSES, MORE OR LESS

So John Kerry appears to have won the Iowa caucuses. Big deal.

No, this is not one of those usual “why do we let a bunch of elderly pig farmers pick the candidates?” commentaries. If you’ve been reading this site for longer than, say, a week, you know that I’m from Iowa originally, and I’m not exactly bashful about the fact. And I have lots of good memories of caucus time. I once had my saxophone searched by the Secret Service, for example. I met George HW Bush and Kitty Dukakis. Paul Simon complimented my bow tie. The best memory I have is hearing Jesse Jackson speak in my school cafeteria. That was the day I realized that the spoken word still has power above and beyond any other means of communicating–and, whatever you may think of the guy, to hear Jesse Jackson speak is to hear everything the human race has ever learned about speaking.

And there’s no question that the caucuses are an economic boost for my constantly-recessing home state. To get full TV coverage in Iowa, candidates have to buy ad slots in nine different markets. And, with no true statewide newspaper or radio station anymore, that’s a lot more money being spent–which means there’s a lot less money to be spent elsewhere, and the rest of you are welcome. Iowans endure three months of wall-to-wall campaigning so you won’t have to.

What I don’t get is why anybody really cares about the meetings to select the people who will vote for the people who will vote for the people who will vote for the candidate we’ll wind up voting on in November. Since 1972, the caucus straw poll (the “caucus results” you’re hearing tonight) has only predicted the eventual Democratic nominee 3 out of 7 times. Of course, only in 1992 was the nominee somebody who didn’t finish in the top three (Clinton finished fourth), but still, 3 for 7 isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of the Iowa caucuses’ efficacy.

It’s not like the numbers are a whole bunch better for the Republicans, either–2 out 5 times, the winner of the Iowa caucuses has wound up being the party’s nominee. (Here’s a source if you don’t want to take my word for it.)

So, by all means, enjoy the coverage tonight and the punditry in the next few days. And please think fondly of my home state when you do. But for cryin’ out loud, don’t delude yourself into thinking that the course of history has been determined tonight.