UNRAVELING THE GEPHARDT ENIGMA

So a few people are a little surprised with the fact that Dick Gephardt didn’t run very well in the Iowa Caucuses yesterday. After all, Gephardt’s from Missouri, and the two states are neighbors. Gephardt also won the ‘88 Iowa caucus, and he had the best organization on the ground there this year–largely due to the support of organized labor.

I can think of at least three reasons why, irrespective of his message, Gephardt’s poor showing isn’t all that surprising:

1. There is less cross-pollination between Iowa and Missouri than you may think. No major Missouri media outlets are available in Iowa, nor do any of Iowa’s main media outlets have significant Missouri clientele. Therefore, there isn’t much reportage back and forth about the political goings-on in either state. Sure, Gephardt is a well-known name in Iowa, but he’s no better known there than he is in any of the 48 other states.

   Likewise, Gephardt is from St. Louis, and the economic and cultural ties between Iowa and the Gateway City are pretty weak. The STL is a long ways off, and it’s not easy to get to from most locations in Iowa. (The Avenue of the Saints will certainly change this, but its completion is still several years off.)

2. Organized labor isn’t very powerful in Iowa anymore. Mind you, it was powerful back in the mid-80s, when Iowa still had a significant number of manufacturing jobs. But times have changed. Manufacturing isn’t the biggest sector of Iowa’s economy anymore, and interestingly, neither is agriculture–it’s insurance. (Which makes it all the more interesting that a trial lawyer like John Edwards did so well there, but I digress.) Appealing to union members in Iowa is sort of like appealing to ski resort owners in Florida.
3. Gephardt was just too gracious for his own good. There’s no question that Howard Dean’s forced aggressiveness turned off a lot of Iowa voters. But Gephardt’s low-key manner probably caused a lot of Iowans to question how badly he wanted to be president. Iowans are a polite people who reward the same in others, but we’ve never seen anything wrong with ambition. Gephardt might have finished higher if he’d just shown a little more competitive fire.

I’m a little disappointed at how Gephardt finished, but I’m sure he’ll land on his feet. There will be a university that needs a high-profile dean/lecturer, or a plum semi-private-sector job will open up, or something similar. The electoral phase of his life probably ended last night, but I doubt we’ve heard the last of Dick Gephardt.

(submitted for today’s BELTWAY TRAFFIC JAM)