IT’S ABOUT TIME TO BE WRONG: BIG TEN PREVIEW

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I’m getting Pickin’ On the Big Ten fired up for another year of deep sarcasm and invariably-wrong predictions. College football will be upon us sooner than you think. In that spirit, let’s go in-depth into the best football conference in America, the mighty Big Ten.

LAST YEAR: GOOD TO THE LAST DROP

The league’s bowl record in ‘03 was dismal, with only Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio State notching wins. Still, Iowa’s Robert Gallery won the Outland Trophy, with Wolverine Chris Perry winning the Doak Walker Award and Buckeye B.J. Sander winning the Ray Guy Will Never Get Into the Hall of Fame Award.

No head coaches were fired after the season, though two probably should have been: Joe Paterno and Illinois’ Ron Turner. I know it upsets the Penn State faithful, but the evidence is all over the place that JoePa just doesn’t have “it” anymore. I’m a Hawkeye fan and I know what it’s like when your beloved coach who brought you every good thing you’ve ever had sticks around a season or two too long. Suck it up, Nits–you could wind up with the next Kirk Ferentz or Urban Meyer. Thank the guy, hand him the gold watch, and everybody get on with the rest of their lives.

Turner, on the other hand, was positively snakebit last season. Injuries and inexperience combined to make the Illini go 0-for-Division-1A. While it’s nice that the Illinois administration is giving Turner a chance to rebuild (he did have them in the Sugar Bowl a couple years back, you know), it’s certain that the heat is on and another losing season will have resumes flooding into Champaign-Urbana.

THE CATCHPHRASE FOR THIS SEASON

If you’re going to follow Big Ten football this year, get used to hearing the words “Pass intended for . . .”. Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Wisconsin will be breaking in new quarterbacks, while several other teams will be looking for better years from QBs who were either injured or just plain ineffective in 2003. Indeed, you can probably count on only two things offensively in the Big Ten this season: Minnesota will lead in rushing, and Kyle Orton’s going to get a long look at the pros.

Now, let’s hand out some meaningless trophies.

The Buster Douglas/Vinko Bogataj Scepter of Disastrous Overachievement goes to Michigan State for responding rather quickly to “John L. Smith”’s leadership, going from 3-8 and dizzy all the way to the Alamo Bowl, where they got stomped flat by Bo Pelini’s Nebraska squad in the one and only game he ever coached.

We award Minnesota head coach Glen Mason the Bonnie Raitt Career Stopwatch for his just-in-the-nick-of-time job-saving season, capped by a nailbiting win over Oregon in the Sun Bowl.

Wisconsin earned its way to the “Where’s Waldo?” Magnifying Glass of Shame for failing to show up at home against a not-very-good UNLV team.

Lastly, the Shevin Wiggins Golden Transcript goes to Illinois’ 38-year-old quarterback Jon Beutjer, returning for his 14th year of eligibility this fall.

TEAM-BY-TEAM THROUGH THE BIG TEN

ILLINOIS: JUST PUT IN THE MARCHING BAND

When the history of Illini football is written, the two paragraphs about the 2003 season will somehow, mysteriously, get lost on the way to the printer. The Illini could only manage one victory, over I-74 rival Illinois State. Otherwise, Zip City. But the season wasn’t a total loss, as sophomore running back E.B. Halsey emerged as the Illini’s future go-to guy.

Of course, he missed three games due to injury.

Jon Beutjer also found the rhythm which had eluded him in 2002, and previously in his career at Iowa.

Of course, he missed five games due to injury.

The Illini finished last in the conference in total defense and rushing defense. In fact, the Illini only returned 21 punts for the entire season. That’s got to be some kind of futility record.

So where to go this season? It’s tempting to say “nowhere but up;” however, the only “gimme” on the schedule is Florida A&M, and I’m not even sure what division they’re in. The Illini will duck Penn State and Ohio State this year, but face trips to Wisconsin and Michigan State in consecutive weeks. A winning season would be a nice goal, but unless Beutjer stays healthy and finds some new receivers to replace Mark Kornfeld and Kelvin Hayden, it sure doesn’t look likely.

INDIANA: STILL PLAYS FOOTBALL

Mike Davis’s Hoosier squad finished under .500 and missed the postseason last year.

He’s the IU basketball coach.

This is bad news for Gerry DiNardo, as it greatly increases the odds that somebody will discover he’s coaching the Hoosiers. Last season was like driving a Chevette in an ice storm for DiNardo; his squad only managed a victory over Indiana State and, of course, the Illinois Traveling Bye-Week Squad. The Hoosiers could only manage a lame 14.8 points per game, while giving up nearly 33. QB Matt LoVecchio (who returns) threw only 3 TDs against 9 picks. Defensively, IU struggled mightily against both the run and the pass.

Things may improve this season–they couldn’t get much worse–but expecting DiNardo’s squad to take the conference by storm is a fantasy that Mike Davis only occasionally indulges. Still, the Hoosiers could start off 2-1, if they can pull off a mild upset at Kentucky. IU will not face Iowa or Wisconsin this season.

IOWA: THIS IS GETTING TO BE A HABIT

Nobody expected much from the Hawkeyes last season, since they had to replace three offensive-line starters (four if you count Dallas Clark, and you should) and the Heisman Trophy runner-up. It wasn’t pretty, but Iowa managed to finish in the national top ten after an 37-17 slapdown of Florida in the Outback Bowl.

But this will certainly be a rebuilding year for the Hawks. Robert Gallery is gone. Nate Kaeding is gone. Bob Sanders is gone. Fred Russell is gone. Jared Clauss is gone. Those guys leave some serious holes to fill. If you’ve ever wondered how good a coach Kirk Ferentz really is, watch him this season, because you’re going to find out. He’s got a bit less to work with than he’s had the last two seasons.

Drew Tate, who played a little garbage time last year, inherits the QB slot. Returning linebacks Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway should help keep oppsing rushers in check. Kyle Schlicher will kick. All in all, while Iowa probably won’t take a huge step back, and will probably go bowling for the fourth consecutive year, another 10-3 season isn’t so likely. A road trip to Tempe will provide a significant early test, as Arizona State is bound to remember what the Hawks did to them last season. Iowa doesn’t face Indiana and Northwestern this season, but apart from a roadie to Ann Arbor, most of the toughest tests will be at home, where the Hawks rarely lose as of late.

MICHIGAN: DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE

Jon Navarre and Chris Perry are both gone. It remains to be seen what that will mean for the Wolverines in 2004. Navarre was a system QB, certainly competent, but not quite in the Henson/Brady league. Perry was a phenom whose loss will be felt and will probably change the shape of the Michigan offense.

So, anyway: Matt Gutierrez and the committee of Jerome Jackson and Pierre Rembert. That’s who will replace the Big Ten’s top offensive backfield of a year ago. Gutierrez is considered by many to be Navarre’s equal. With Braylon Edwards to throw to, he should do alright. The very fearsome defense (led by one of the nation’s best backfields) will clamp down hard on the mediocre. Lots of teams will struggle against Michigan, more so than last year, even with fewer “name” players in the maize and blue. The schedule smiles, with the only dangerous road games being at Purdue and, of course, Ohio State. Wisconsin and Penn State duck the Wolverines in ‘04.

MICHIGAN STATE: LUCKY OR GOOD?

Nobody expected much from Sparty last season, what with a new coach, QB Jeff Smoker’s overpublicized problems, a shaky defense, and all. But Sparty delivered, starting out huge before fading a little in the stretch. (They’ve a new strength-and-conditioning coach this year, if that tells you anything.)

But defensive backfield play was a serious problem for MSU last season–I was at the Penn State game, and I’d swear the band struck up “El Matador” every time PSU went for a pass–and if it doesn’t improve, it’ll be a long season in East Lansing. The spring game showed a few hopeful signs in this regard.

Offensively, there shouldn’t be too much trouble. Redshirt freshman Stephen Reaves will probably start the season at QB, and the backfield tandem of DeAndra Cobb and Jehuu Caulcrick may be the league’s best RB combo–east of the Mississippi, that is. The out-of-conference schedule is pure cake, with a trip to Rutgers and home games with Central Michigan (who will be breaking in a new coach this season) and Notre Dame (who will be breaking in a new coach next season). Sparty evades Purdue and Northwestern, and trust me, whoever their DB coach is, he’s glad about the former. Tough trips to Iowa and Michigan await, however.

MINNESOTA: A BAD CASE OF THE RUNS

It isn’t often that a team leads its league in rushing and does so by 1116 yards over the second-place finisher. But the Shiny Rats pulled off that trick last season. Leading rushers Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney, who combined for over 2000 yards last year, return, much to the disgust of the rest of the league. But hyper-mobile QB Asad Abdul-Khaliq is gone, and it’s still unclear which inexperienced QB will replace him.

The Gophers were totally mid-pack in all defensive categories last season. There are big holes in the middle of the defensive alignment, which could spell disaster if some key newcomers can’t cling to a steep learning curve. To make matters worse, the Gophers are actually playing a sort-of-tough nonconference schedule this year, facing Toledo at home and traveling to face Sonny Lubick’s Colorado State team. In conference, Goldy is going to Ann Arbor, East Lansing, and Madison, while evading Ohio State and Purdue. Another bowl game is possible, but not probable.

NORTHWESTERN: HOW THE HECK DID THAT HAPPEN?

The Wildcats may have saved Randy Walker’s job by getting to a bowl game last season, even if it was only the Motor City Bowl, and even if they did lose. Truthfully, NU blundered their way in to the post-season; apart from a solid rush attack, last year’s team had few standout players or units. And, unfortunately for the NU faithful, the man responsible for that rushing attack (Jason Wright) is gone. Brett Basanez has had two full seasons to develop as NU’s signal caller, but has yet to fulfill his promise. And the downright-rank defense must show a huge improvement as well, or it could be a long season in Evanston.

NU faces two bowl teams (TCU and Kansas) and what promises to be a vastly better Arizona State squad before the conference season opens. The purplest team in the Big Ten will not face Ohio State or Iowa this season.

OHIO STATE: ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK?

OSU’s teams have been relatively anonymous ever since Mo Clarett left town for the Not Yet Ready For Prime Time Players, but still, people have definitely heard of Craig Krenzel and Chris Gamble, both of whom are gone. Justin Zwick will take the snaps, while the underrated Lydell Ross will rush. But offense isn’t going to be the issue for the Bucks.

Trouble may loom on the defensive side of the ball, where only two of the front seven are returning. Since OSU led the league in rushing defense last season, it’s a good bet that opponents will have a bit more luck running the ball this year. The news is a little better in the defensive backfield, with 3 of 4 starters returning, but last year’s crew was nothing special. This could be a return to earth for the Buckeyes, especially with Michigan looming large and Purdue showing serious potential.

A tough road trip to NC State and conference road tilts with Iowa and Purdue are also in the offing. But Michigan is coming to the Horseshoe this year, and that’s fortunate for OSU, since I have the feeling they’re going to need a little help this year. But not against Illinois or Minnesota, whom they will not face. Too bad, they could maybe use the guaranteed Ws.

PENN STATE: WE WANT MATLOCK!

Okay, okay, enough with the JoePa jokes. Except for the one he put on the field last year, that is.

Paterno just signed a four-year extension, so I’m working under the assumption that he’s actually going to be around for a while longer. But if his offense is as offensive as it was last year, that may change. Zack Mills is in his final season and will face pressure from several talented underclassmen. But Penn State desperately needs to find a running game. Austin Scott may step up and provide it. The defense kept the Nits competitive in some of their games, but wholesale changes are probably in order here, too.

You know what? There’s just too little new, and too little returning, for me to say that Paterno turns the corner and brings Penn State back to any significant degree. They could easily gack against George O’Leary’s Central Florida squad, and the conference schedule is filled with peril. They could easily get run over by both Wisconsin and Minnesota, with home games against Purdue (an all-but-guaranteed loss) and Iowa (who’s had their number recently) to follow. They don’t have to play Michigan, which is good, but there’s no Illinois game lurking, either. This team may win four games or more, but probably not more than six. A bowl game is therefore a slight possiblity–not a good one.

PURDUE: THIS IS YOUR MOMENT

Seriously. If Joe Tiller’s going to make it to a Rose Bowl, this is the year. All the elements are in place. In Kyle Orton, he’s got the conference’s best returning QB. His defense will miss killer safety Stuart Schweigert, but there’s enough returning talent that it shouldn’t be a serious issue. A stronger running game wouldn’t hurt, but still, everything is there. The Boilermakers will need some lucky breaks, but this could be their season. They don’t have to slow down Minnesota’s rushing attack. They don’t face the reinvigorated Michigan State squad. And their toughest road game is in Iowa City. I’m not saying I smell roses, but New Year’s Day? It’s more than a possibility for this team.

WISCONSIN: THE CONSISTENCY OF WHALE VOMIT

They soiled themselves against a bad UNLV team, then ended OSU’s unbeaten streak and beat up Sparty. They’ll have to replace their quarterback, but the cupboard’s not exactly bare. Could be an interesting year on Lake Mendota.

John Stocco will probably be the new Badger QB. Anthony Davis and Booker Stanley return to run the ball. Lee Evans is gone and can’t be replaced. Jim Leonhard is set to run wild. And much of the defense returns intact. Wisconsin’s upside is huge, but are they ready to attack the upper echelon of the league? Time will tell. They may have their hands full with Mike Stoops’ Arizona squad. But they don’t play Michigan. However, there are road trips to West Lafayette, East Lansing, Columbus, and Iowa City in the offing, and that will keep the Badger in the middle of the pack. That, and the fact that they don’t play Indiana.

SO HOW DO THEY STACK UP?

Here’s my predicted order of finish.

1. Michigan–there’s just too much upside to this team.
2. Purdue–they’ll need some luck, though.
3. Ohio State–slipping back, but not far back.
4. Iowa–on the backs of their defense.
5. Wisconsin–unless they forget to show up a couple times, like last year.
6. Michigan State–a good team with an unfortunate schedule.
7. Minnesota–it’ll be too easy to stack against the run.
8. Penn State–not many weapons, but better than what’s underneath them.
9. Northwestern–without a credible run threat, they’ve got nothing.
10. Illinois–improved, but so is everybody else.
11. Indiana–with one exception, of course.