A MUDDLED AND MURKY LOOK AT THE BIG 10 BOWL PICTURE

So who’s going bowling from the Big Ten conference? And can the league fill all seven of its bowl slots? Let’s take a look, team-by-team, at the bowl prospects:

ILLINOIS: Staying home for the holidays, having already clinched a losing season.

INDIANA: Slim hopes for postseason activity. Must win its three remaining games, at Illinois, vs. Penn State, and the season closer at Purdue. This isn’t impossible, and would probably send the Hoosiers to Nashville . . . more on that later.

IOWA: Clinched bowl eligibility this weekend. Slim outright title hopes, if the Hawkeyes win out (@ Minnesota, vs. Wisconsin) and Michigan (vs. Northwestern, @ Ohio State) loses out. But, while one of those things might happen, both of them certainly won’t.

MICHIGAN: Bowl-eligible. #12 in the BCS; will need win out and get some help to move up, since victories over Northwestern and Ohio State aren’t going to impress many voters. A decent shot for a BCS at-large bid, but can you imagine the howling if a 1-loss Michigan team gets in and an undeafeated Utah team doesn’t? Wins the conference outright if they win out and Wisconsin loses twice, ties if they win out and Wisconsin loses once.

MICHIGAN STATE: Needs to win 2 of its last 4 games (vs. Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin, @ Penn State, @ Hawaii) to become bowl-eligible. The overtime heartbreaker this past weekend gives this team a serious challenge, but if they can get over on the Buckeyes this weekend, they should make a bowl game.

MINNESOTA: The Gophers have six wins, but one is over Division I-AA Illinois State, and Glen Mason’s squad used its once-every-four-years Pansy Rule exemption in 2002. So the Gophers have to beat Iowa at home or win in Madison to go bowling.

NORTHWESTERN: Needs to win two of its last four (@ Penn State, @ Michigan, vs. Illinois, @ Hawaii) to clinch eligibility. Should get one of those (Illinois), but may struggle to win one of those road games.

OHIO STATE: Needs to win one of its last three (@ Michigan State, @ Purdue, vs. Michigan) to reach a bowl. Before this weekend I’d have thought that impossible; now I merely think it’s difficult.

PENN STATE: Ineligible for the post-season, having clinched a losing season. Can still ruin several teams’ post-season plans, however, but any victories now would almost have to be considered upsets.

PURDUE: How quickly things change. A couple weeks ago Purdue looked like they could make a run at the national championship. Now they’re still one win shy of eligibility with three to play (@ Iowa, vs. Ohio State, vs. Indiana). Not even the last of those can any longer be considered a gimme.

WISCONSIN: Bowl-eligible and likely to be #3 or 4 in the BCS standings due out this week. The only team in the conference that controls its own destiny: If they win out (vs. Minnesota, @ Iowa) they will win the conference title. At any rate, the Badgers can finish no worse than third in the conference. They could play for the national title if they win out, and both Auburn and Oklahoma lose.

The eligibility picture

In theory, the Big Ten could qualify as many as nine teams for bowls, if Indiana wins out, Michigan State beats Penn State and Hawaii, Minnesota wins once (both their games are against already-eligible teams, so they can’t knock anybody out), Northwestern beats Illinois and wins one of its three road games, Ohio State beats Michigan State or Michigan, and Purdue beats either Iowa or Ohio State (but not Indiana).

Alternately, the conference could qualify as few as four teams under this scenario: Indiana loses once, Michigan State loses two of its last three conference games and gacks at Hawaii (which a lot of teams do), Minnesota loses out, Northwestern either drops its three road games or loses to Illinois and goes 1-2 on the road, and neither Ohio State nor Purdue wins any other games this season except for the one game they play against each other. That would leave Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and the Ohio State/Purdue winner as the only bowl-eligible teams in the conference.

WHAT TO ROOT FOR IF YOU’RE A FAN OF . . .

ILLINOIS: The potential arrival of Chuck Long or Frank Solich
INDIANA: The continued failure of Purdue

IOWA: Michigan to make it to a BCS bowl and the Hawks to win out, which would send Iowa to the Capital One Bowl
MICHIGAN: No letdowns, and Minnesota or Iowa to get over on the Badgers
MICHIGAN STATE: A quick rebound from this weekend
MINNESOTA: The sudden failure of Iowa’s run defense, since there’s no way Goldy’s winning in Madison
NORTHWESTERN: The road victory you don’t have yet this season, because without one, no bowl for you
OHIO STATE: Sparty letdown, Purdue blues, or horseshoe magic when it seems least likely
PENN STATE: Your basketball team
PURDUE: That Indiana’s two improbable wins this season really were flukes
WISCONSIN: No letdowns; it’s all in your team’s hands

. . . so who’s going where?

Here’s my predictions as of this moment: I see Michigan just missing on a BCS at-large spot even if Wisconsin doesn’t win out. The only way two Big Ten teams make it into the BCS is if Michigan and Wisconsin both win out, Utah loses (unlikely), Auburn loses (ditto), and a couple other miracles happen, or Michigan wins out, Wisconsin loses once, and even more miracles happen. So I don’t see two Big Ten teams in the BCS this year. That makes the bowl breakdown thus:

• Rose/BCS: Michigan
• Capital One: Wisconsin
• Outback: Iowa
• Alamo: Purdue
• Sun: Ohio State
• Music City: Northwestern
• Motor City: Surrendered to an at-large team

YOU’VE GOT TO START THEM EARLY . . .

. . . especially if you live in enemy territory.

THE DEFINITION OF “THROWN UNDER THE BUS”

Fr. Andrew Greeley, the iconoclastic Catholic sociologist/novelist, has made an unsurprising presidential endorsement:

There are two proportionate reasons for rejecting President Bush’s bid
for re-election. Both the United States and the world are a mess. Mr.
Bush is responsible for both messes. The first president ever to claim
de facto infallibility, Mr. Bush tells us that he follows his instincts
in decision-making after praying over the decision and talking to God.
He admits no mistakes — how could anyone who has a direct link to God
make a mistake! In his next administration he will receive more divine
inspirations which will make both the country and the world even more
messy.

What? A Catholic priest attacking somebody for praying? He continues:

Do we want him to continue with these god-driven policies for four more
years? Eleven hundred dead Americans already. How many more thousands
will have to die before God will tell Mr. Bush to get out of Iraq? How
many tens of thousands more Iraqis will have to die?

[. . .]

The president, like every human, is entitled to his own relationship
with God. He is entitled to use that relationship to make decisions, to
justify them later, and to stick to them no matter what happens. Many
Americans will accept such decisions because they believe he is a
“godly” man. Not everyone else has to tolerate four more years of his
divine right to govern.

There is something subtle in that first paragraph of the second quote which may be a simple typo and may reveal much more about Greeley’s opinion of Bush’s faith than even I would have expected him to do. I have a shiny new dime for the first person who can tell me what it is.

POLITICAL THINGS I DO NOT CARE ABOUT

• 380 tons of missing explosives, which would require a fleet of trucks to move
• What John Kerry did with his medals 30+ years ago, and who he may or may not have done it with
• What George Bush did to his liver and/or military career 20+ years ago (ref. this post, item #3
• The opinions of a quarter-million armchair Tom Clancys/Noam Chomskys with $10 websites just like this one (ref. this post, item #4)
• Anybody’s health care plans, since the Boston Bruins will win the World Series before any meaningful health care reform is enacted in this country
• What the British, French and Germans think about our elected leaders–you have your own countries and your own problems, people
• Michael Moore’s opinion on anything
• Anyone else’s opinion on Michael Moore’s opinion on anything
• The political convictions of actors, athletes, and/or musicians, for that matter
• Ralph Nader–you’ve been heard and your vision of the best possible America has been disagreed with by almost everyone
• The domination of American politics by lawyers and those in the energy business–your vision of America has been lived out, and frequently it stinks
• Charges of media bias–how can this possibly be news to anyone?
• Presidential candidates who have no clear vision for or experience with farm policy or the problems of rural America and therefore live in complete ignorance of the devastation being caused by rural poverty
• And most especially–pre-recorded political phone calls

I AM THE BOSTON RED SOX

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Which File Extension are You?

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, WEEK 9

It was a historic week in the Big Ten last week. (Or is that “an historic week”? This isn’t PBS, so I’ll stick with what I wrote.) The largest crowd ever to watch a baseball game–108,000 plus–turned out in State College to witness the inception of half a week’s worth of bad baseball jokes. Meanwhile, Michigan and Wisconsin proved that defense still wins championships, which will come as news to the aforementioned 108,000 plus.

In downstate Illinois, the few remaining Illini faithful got 3 seconds of excitement on Monday morning, until they heard the last name of the Ron who had been fired. Hang on; as Ruby and the Romantics once said, “[Y]our day will come.”

Speaking of golden oldies, Minnesota continued their decades-old practice of winning big when there’s nothing meaningful on the line, while Ohio State and Indiana fulfilled some sort of ancient contractual obligation.

And PotB10 got close–real close–on two game scores. I called the Gilded Rodents 44, the Sighing Ill Lionized 0, and the actual was 45-0. Likewise I predicted The Animals Not Actually Found Anywhere In Wisconsin 23, The Animals Banned By Evanston City Ordinance 14, and the final was 24-12. Having thus exhausted my supply of accurate predictions for the season, PotB10 returns to its regularly scheduled program of conjecture, slapdash analysis, and outright wishful thinking.

IOWA @ ILLINOIS

The term “trap game” was invented for games like this. After a horrid offensive performance, with the listing-but-still-dangerous Boilermakers coming to town next week, the Hawks take a roadie to face a team whose performance cannot be predicted and whose coach knows that he has nothing left to lose. Yes, this has every earmark of being a “trap game.”

Except for the fact that it’s against Illinois, of course.

DISKINNICKTED 34
LOGAN’S RON 13

MINNESOTA @ INDIANA

Indiana is next-to-last in the Big Ten in rushing defense. That’s only because Illinois, which is last, played the Gophers first.

YOU GOT TO KNOW HOW TO BARBER LIKE BONY MARONEY 38
SWING LOVECCHIO, SWEET BASKETBALL SEASON 10

MICHIGAN STATE @ MICHIGAN

If there’s going to be a Big Ten game worth watching this weekend (and I’m not saying that there is), this will be it. Michigan State has been resurgent since its standard early-season bed-soiling, while the Wolverines have pulled it together and staked a claim for the BCS, even if Wisconsin can hold serve. These two teams match up really well–Michigan has more talent but is far more likely to turn the ball over, and I have not yet reserved my seat on the Mike Hart Greatness Express. The Big House still has some weird hoodoo, but I’d take John L. over Lloyd eleven times out of ten. He reminds me of Hayden Fry in the way that every season he wins one game he shouldn’t–and loses one he shouldn’t, either. I’m saying this is his game to win.

FOLLOW YOUR NOSE, IT ALWAYS KNOWS 24
NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS EVERYBODY THINKS WE ARE 21

PURDUE @ NORTHWESTERN

Lost in all the other Big Ten hoopla is the fact that Wildcats coach Randy Walker has been hospitalized with a touch of myocarditis. How that affects this game, I’ve no idea. After two straight losses, the Rose Bowl is only a pipe dream for the Boilers, and Kyle Orton appears to have gacked on the Heisman as well. It’s mostly pride being played for now, while Northwestern knows they have the fight of their life to get back to the post-season. But NU’s pass defense is dreadful–they gave up nearly 200 yards to Wisconsin, for cryin’ out loud–so the outcome of this game is really not in doubt. Purdue gets the train back on track.

WE ARE SO NOT GOING TO SAN ANTONIO 28
GET WELL SOON, COACH 13

PENN STATE @ OHIO STATE

Speaking of historic events, this may become the first game in recent memory in which there are more yards gained on special teams than by either offense. Look for a game-breaking interception to turn this one around, assuming either coach lets their QB throw the ball. Which, personally, I wouldn’t. The Bucks were clearly not ready for prime time, but the Nits are the most dreadful Big Ten team I’ve seen since Kirk Ferentz’ first season–and easily the worst current Big Ten squad not located just off I-74.

Oh, cruel fate, denying us a Penn State-Illinois game this season!

CHEETAHS NEVER WIN 0
NEITHER DO LIONS, LATELY 3

Next week:

• Indiana @ Illinois: Only $14.95 on ESPN GamePlan!
• Purdue @ Iowa: What’s the difference between Orlando and El Paso? This game
• Ohio State @ Michigan State: Yeeks. The Bucks better schedule EMU, so they beat at least one Michigan school
• Northwestern @ Penn State: A defibrillator joke would be in poor taste
• Minnesota @ Wisconsin: Forget it, nobody’s getting over on the Badger D this season

FALLING DOWN ON THE JOB

Egads. I haven’t posted any baby pictures in six days. Let me fix that:

TEN RANDOM THOUGHTS #8

1. Why does anybody connected with NASCAR ever get in an airplane?
2. “I’m [insert name here], and I approved this message” has gotten old more quickly than any “tee hee, aren’t I clever” catchphrase since “Is that your final answer?”.
3. Hasty’s Law of Inexplicably Inapplicable Voltage states: Whatever size battery you need will be the one size you don’t have in the house.
4. Has anybody ever had their mind changed about anything by an Internet debate?
5. There are not enough lime-flavored things. There should be more.
6. Which is worse right now: Being a Penn State fan and watching your beloved coach slowly suck all the life out of the dynasty he created be refusing to acknowledge what everybody on the face of the planet already knows (namely, that if he coaches even one more season there will be a big smoking hole where Penn State football used to be), or being a Florida fan and watching one of your athletic director’s buddies drive the program into the ground in less time than it takes to get through law school? And is being a Baylor fan worse than either of those?
7. Speaking of odious catchphrases, no, I will not “kick it up a notch.”
8. People with newborns in the house have a real hard time coming up with lists of ten bulleted points without at least one of those points referring to the actual child.
9. So since Serena sleeps more or less through the night and hardly makes a noise unless somebody is changing her clothes, we’re in for some epic fussiness and noisemaking later on, aren’t we?
10. They’re building an Arby’s three blocks away from us but dang it, they’re not building it fast enough.

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, WEEK 8

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zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzz*SKNXKX* . . . oh, hi. Just dozing a little. The baby? No, she sleeps through the night pretty well. Actually, I was thinking about the Ohio State/Indiana game this weekend and, well . . . a guy gets a little logy thinking about that matchup of Troy Smith and Matt LoVecchio . . . Lydell Ross and BenJarvus Green Ellit[THUD]rwsgujhnt934yn 4e9prgawef zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

*GFWRRRTHSKNX* Man. Couldn’t I have been born in ACC country?

ILLINOIS @ MINNESOTA

Ron Turner has finally benched Jon Beutjer, since the Social Security Administration said Beutjer’s scholarship was going to cut into those retirement checks he’ll start receiving in a couple months.

I mean, seriously, the Red Sox may have gotten over on the Yankees finally, but some things don’t change, and among them is the fact that the Illini haven’t won a conference game since 2002. How will they do in the Metrodome with their three-green-QB rotation against a Gopher squad with a chip on their shoulders? They couldn’t do any worse if they were playing the Vikings.

WE’VE RON OUT OF TIME 0
GLENGARRY GLEN MASON 44

INDIANA @ OHIO STATE

Talk about hopeless–no offense, badly-burnt defense, winless in the conference, fan base wondering jsut how much worse things could get. And Indiana’s not doing so well, either.

You know, this is a loseable game for the Buckeyes. Let us not forget that this Indiana team beat Oregon at Autzen Stadium. That is not easy to do, even if Oregon did play the worst game of any supposedly-good team in recent memory. And with absolutely no offensive weapons worth mentioning, the Buckeyes may have trouble overcoming a ten-point lead. If Indiana gets one, that is, and I dont think they will. I believe tOSU will get back on track, but Buckeye fans who think that this game will be a hanging curveball are in for some clenched-sphincter moments.

NOWHERE FAST 10
TRESSELMANIA 14

IOWA @ PENN STATE

Things have gotten so bad for the Hawkeye running game that they’ve been forced to start actual Iowa natives at running back in consecutive weeks. Things have gotten so bad for the Nits that they’re probably glad they don’t have to play Illinois this year.

JoePa will want to make a good showing for the home crowd, but leave us not forget that (a) Paterno has been Captain Kirk’s chew toy in recent years, and (b) the Hawks have a lot to play for too–especially since Kirk Ferentz’s father, a Pennsylvanian, passed away this past Sunday. This will be a tough game, but nobody is questioning whether Kirk Ferentz has lost his team. They’re starting to wonder that about JoePa.

¿QUIEN ES TU JOEPA? 23
AY, NO ME GUSTA 10

MICHIGAN @ PURDUE

Color ABC disappointed. This is now just an ordinary two-teams-at-the-top-of-the-conference game instead of the Heisman coming-out party it looked like it could have been a week ago. These two teams match up well and this game will be compelling football. However, for Purdue, they’ve got to know that they’ve already faced the toughest test they’ll face from here on out. There’s just nothing like the Wisconsin defense. Not even the Michigan defense can compare. I look for Orton to have a much better day than he did last week. I like the Boilers to regain some swagger, and the Wolverines to regain some stagger.

ALMOST AS GOOD AS WE THINK WE ARE 21
WE FUMBLED AWAY A SURE THING 27

NORTHWESTERN @ WISCONSIN

There’s no need to play this game, right? If Wisky could shut up Kyle Orton, Brett Basanez should be no trouble, right? I mean, this is Northwestern we’re talking about. The team that couldn’t get over on a very average TCU squad. You run this thing on your computer and Wisconsin will win it 12 times out of 10.

But they don’t play the games on computers, and Barry Alvarez is 6-6 in his career against Northwestern. Moreover, the Badgers will not have Erasmus James, their Andre Tippett-like defensive end. And weird things happen when the Wildcats are counted out. You know the temptation is there–the next game on Bucky’s card is Minnesota. I am certain Barry is not looking forward–but will the rest of the squad be thinking about Gophers?

Naah. Too many seniors on that defensive squad. They’ll never let it happen. Right?

THE JASON VOORHIES OF THE BIG TEN 14
WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD 23

Next week:

• Iowa @ Illinois: Who will defend Jon Beutjer’s honor?
• Minnesota @ Indiana: Who can protect this house, if not the Hoosiers?
• Michigan State @ Michigan: Who will show up: the good Sparty team or the bad one?
• Purdue @ Northwestern: Who kills pests better than the Orton man?
• Penn State @ Ohio State: Who cares? Seriously

. . . SO WHO’S PROUDER?