PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, WEEK 7

You could say the Big Ten’s gone to the dogs this week. After all, in West Lafayette, two alpha-wolf wannabes will be fighting it out to see who’s top dog in the conference. In Iowa City, two skinny puppies will fight over the last pork chop. And in East Lansing and Champaign-Urbana, two typical dog/hydrant interactions are scheduled. Meanwhile, three teams are catnapping. So let’s lose the dog metaphor and look at the games, huh?

MICHIGAN @ ILLINOIS

The good news for Ron Turner’s squad is that they’re no longer last in the conference in every (or even any) defensive category. They also have the league’s best run/pass balance on offense, and they’re the least-penalized team in the Big Ten.

The bad news is that Chad Henne has started channeling Philip Rivers (before the holdout), proving that a Michigan shoulder injury is pretty much the same as a Soviet cold. The situation is not hopeless for the Illini–Henne trails only Penn State’s Zack Mills in INTs thrown, and there’s about a 140% chance that Michigan is already looking ahead to next week’s Purdue game–but seriously, this will be a long afternoon in downstate Illinois. Michigan should have no trouble putting this one away before halftime.

ALMOST AS GOOD AS WE THINK WE ARE 48
ABOUT AS BAD AS YOU THOUGHT WE WERE 7

OHIO STATE @ IOWA

Wow. And people thought last week’s tOSU game was low-scoring. Keep your eyes peeled for this game, because the way both defenses stop the run (and the way neither offense can get a ground game going), there’s a chance you might see a punter’s leg come flying off by the 4th quarter, and you’d just hate to miss something like that.

Drew Tate and Justin Zwick are evenly matched–they’ve both been sacked 13 times and have 1:1 TD/INT ratios. Tate is slightly more accurate as a passer, but the Buckeyes are tough on pass defense. The Hawkeyes are only mediocre at defending the air attack. So it comes down to the intangibles, and those always favor the home team–in fact, the Hawks have only last at home twice since the start of the 2001 season. It always makes me nervous to pick my team, but I like the Hawks in a pitcher’s duel.

THREE AND OUT 9
UP, UP, AND AWAY 10

MINNESOTA @ MICHIGAN STATE

What happens when an unstoppable offense meets an unstartable defense? If a middle linebacker falls in the flat and the tailback is already ten yards downfield, does anybody hear him swear? What is the sound of one hand clapping?

I know the answer to the last one: it’s the sound of the Sparty fans after this game.

PESTS 34
PEST CONTROL 13

WISCONSIN @ PURDUE

So OK, it’s like this: When Wisconsin has the ball, go rake the leaves and clean the gutters. The Badgers have a good ground game, but Purdue is #1 in the league against the run. (That’s mostly because the Trainbuilders have put their opponents so far behind so early that there’s little point in trying to run the ball.) Then, when the Badgers punt (and trust me, they will), hurry back, because Purdue’s offense versus Wisconsin’s defense promises to be some of the most compelling football of the year.

I’m going to say that this will not be a Heisman day for Kyle Orton–less than 300 yards, at least one pick, and no more than two TDs. But I think the Purdue defense nobody wants to talk about will absolutely fluster and harass the Badgers all day long. This won’t be a blowout, but the closeness of the score won’t reflect the competitiveness of the game. Purdue should get past Wisconsin fairly easily.

BARRY NICE TO MEET YOU 13
THIS TRAIN IS BOUND FOR GLORY 24

Next week:

• Illinois @ Minnesota: Will they let Ron Turner come back after this game? And I don’t mean come back next season . . .
• Indiana @ Ohio State: Two singularities in a confined space–this doesn’t bode well
• Iowa @ Penn State: Pedro’s sending JoePa a T-shirt, I hear
• Michigan @ Purdue: If anybody can stop the Boilers, it’s . . . naah, they probably can’t
• Northwestern @ Wisconsin: This would be a trap game if the Cats hadn’t beaten the Badgers last year