A MUDDLED AND MURKY LOOK AT THE BIG 10 BOWL PICTURE

So who’s going bowling from the Big Ten conference? And can the league fill all seven of its bowl slots? Let’s take a look, team-by-team, at the bowl prospects:

ILLINOIS: Staying home for the holidays, having already clinched a losing season.

INDIANA: Slim hopes for postseason activity. Must win its three remaining games, at Illinois, vs. Penn State, and the season closer at Purdue. This isn’t impossible, and would probably send the Hoosiers to Nashville . . . more on that later.

IOWA: Clinched bowl eligibility this weekend. Slim outright title hopes, if the Hawkeyes win out (@ Minnesota, vs. Wisconsin) and Michigan (vs. Northwestern, @ Ohio State) loses out. But, while one of those things might happen, both of them certainly won’t.

MICHIGAN: Bowl-eligible. #12 in the BCS; will need win out and get some help to move up, since victories over Northwestern and Ohio State aren’t going to impress many voters. A decent shot for a BCS at-large bid, but can you imagine the howling if a 1-loss Michigan team gets in and an undeafeated Utah team doesn’t? Wins the conference outright if they win out and Wisconsin loses twice, ties if they win out and Wisconsin loses once.

MICHIGAN STATE: Needs to win 2 of its last 4 games (vs. Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin, @ Penn State, @ Hawaii) to become bowl-eligible. The overtime heartbreaker this past weekend gives this team a serious challenge, but if they can get over on the Buckeyes this weekend, they should make a bowl game.

MINNESOTA: The Gophers have six wins, but one is over Division I-AA Illinois State, and Glen Mason’s squad used its once-every-four-years Pansy Rule exemption in 2002. So the Gophers have to beat Iowa at home or win in Madison to go bowling.

NORTHWESTERN: Needs to win two of its last four (@ Penn State, @ Michigan, vs. Illinois, @ Hawaii) to clinch eligibility. Should get one of those (Illinois), but may struggle to win one of those road games.

OHIO STATE: Needs to win one of its last three (@ Michigan State, @ Purdue, vs. Michigan) to reach a bowl. Before this weekend I’d have thought that impossible; now I merely think it’s difficult.

PENN STATE: Ineligible for the post-season, having clinched a losing season. Can still ruin several teams’ post-season plans, however, but any victories now would almost have to be considered upsets.

PURDUE: How quickly things change. A couple weeks ago Purdue looked like they could make a run at the national championship. Now they’re still one win shy of eligibility with three to play (@ Iowa, vs. Ohio State, vs. Indiana). Not even the last of those can any longer be considered a gimme.

WISCONSIN: Bowl-eligible and likely to be #3 or 4 in the BCS standings due out this week. The only team in the conference that controls its own destiny: If they win out (vs. Minnesota, @ Iowa) they will win the conference title. At any rate, the Badgers can finish no worse than third in the conference. They could play for the national title if they win out, and both Auburn and Oklahoma lose.

The eligibility picture

In theory, the Big Ten could qualify as many as nine teams for bowls, if Indiana wins out, Michigan State beats Penn State and Hawaii, Minnesota wins once (both their games are against already-eligible teams, so they can’t knock anybody out), Northwestern beats Illinois and wins one of its three road games, Ohio State beats Michigan State or Michigan, and Purdue beats either Iowa or Ohio State (but not Indiana).

Alternately, the conference could qualify as few as four teams under this scenario: Indiana loses once, Michigan State loses two of its last three conference games and gacks at Hawaii (which a lot of teams do), Minnesota loses out, Northwestern either drops its three road games or loses to Illinois and goes 1-2 on the road, and neither Ohio State nor Purdue wins any other games this season except for the one game they play against each other. That would leave Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and the Ohio State/Purdue winner as the only bowl-eligible teams in the conference.

WHAT TO ROOT FOR IF YOU’RE A FAN OF . . .

ILLINOIS: The potential arrival of Chuck Long or Frank Solich
INDIANA: The continued failure of Purdue

IOWA: Michigan to make it to a BCS bowl and the Hawks to win out, which would send Iowa to the Capital One Bowl
MICHIGAN: No letdowns, and Minnesota or Iowa to get over on the Badgers
MICHIGAN STATE: A quick rebound from this weekend
MINNESOTA: The sudden failure of Iowa’s run defense, since there’s no way Goldy’s winning in Madison
NORTHWESTERN: The road victory you don’t have yet this season, because without one, no bowl for you
OHIO STATE: Sparty letdown, Purdue blues, or horseshoe magic when it seems least likely
PENN STATE: Your basketball team
PURDUE: That Indiana’s two improbable wins this season really were flukes
WISCONSIN: No letdowns; it’s all in your team’s hands

. . . so who’s going where?

Here’s my predictions as of this moment: I see Michigan just missing on a BCS at-large spot even if Wisconsin doesn’t win out. The only way two Big Ten teams make it into the BCS is if Michigan and Wisconsin both win out, Utah loses (unlikely), Auburn loses (ditto), and a couple other miracles happen, or Michigan wins out, Wisconsin loses once, and even more miracles happen. So I don’t see two Big Ten teams in the BCS this year. That makes the bowl breakdown thus:

• Rose/BCS: Michigan
• Capital One: Wisconsin
• Outback: Iowa
• Alamo: Purdue
• Sun: Ohio State
• Music City: Northwestern
• Motor City: Surrendered to an at-large team