PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v05.5

Oh boy, I can’t wait! There’s going to be so much good football this weekend. Uh, it’s just that all of it will be happening in other conferences.

I mean, seriously. U$C-Fightin’ Underwoods. Bama-Florida. Texas-Mizzou. There’s gonna be some good ball on the tube this Saturday. But this is Pickin’ On The Big Ten, and our official policy is that all those other teams don’t exist. And anyway, while there’s not exactly a marquee matchup in the conference this week, there are some compelling story lines and there’s one game that could turn epic under the right circumstances.

But first, let’s take a look at how your favorite no-charge, no-advertisements prognosticator has done thus far. That would be 31-7, or, if you prefer, 81.5%. I can’t tell you how I’ve done “against the spread” because I don’t pay any attention to point spreads. But just for kicks, here’s how I’m doing on my picks broken down by team.

Illinois: 4-0
Indiana: 3-1
Iowa: 3-1 (dang it)
Michigan: 3-1
Michigan State: 3-1
Minnesota: 3-1
Northwestern: 3-1
Ohio State: 4-0
Penn State: 4-0
Purdue: 2-1
Wisconsin: 3-1

(These numbers don’t add up to 31-7 because, of course, if I’m wrong about a conference game, then I’ve picked it incorrectly twice. And since I biffed two of them last week . . .)

ILLINOIS @ IOWA

Poor Kirk Ferentz. Here his team needs to suck it up in a big hurry and all anybody wants to talk about is the pink locker room.

Well, maybe that’s not all anybody wants to talk about. Some Hawkeye fans are trying to get worked up over the perceived lack of respect that the Zooker showed to Iowa in the runup to the 2004 Outback Bowl, when Zook mistook Nate The Great Kaeding for a running back and implied that he didn’t think it was really important for him to know who the players on the opposing team actually were. (Read more about it here.)

I don’t know if Zook meant any intentional disrespect. I think these guys can tell you that, in fact, they’re not all that surprised. At any rate, it was two seasons ago, and there’s nothing worse than reheated flapdoodle.

No, the real story in this game is that both these teams have something to prove after embarrassing losses last week. Illinois appeared to have acquired a whole new attitude, but that fishgutting by Sparty last week has got to have the faithful wondering if it’s just Same Stuff, Different Coach. Meanwhile in Iowa City everybody’s checking the Hawkeyes’ undercarriage for signs of the wheels coming off. The signs of incipient disemtirement are there–two really sad losses, questionable line play on both sides of the ball, the same old blizzard of penalties, and a quarterback who is 50% Peyton Manning, 50% Ryan Leaf.

Kinnick is still a snakepit, though, and while Illinois has looked better thus far this year, it would be a stretch to say they’re “back.” I think they can keep this game closer than many people imagine, but I’m not ready to go against Iowa at home the week after an ugly loss.

PRETTY IN PINK 24
HOME ALONE WITH A VENGEANCE 41

MICHIGAN @ MICHIGAN STATE

It’s hard to tell which is the larger group: the people who said Michigan was overrated the first two weeks of the season, or the people saying Michigan State is overrated now. CFN threw a blanket party for Sparty on Tuesday, stopping just short of saying John L. Smith’s dog is ugly and Duffy Daugherty’s mother made lumpy gravy. Every single one of their writers said something semi-derogatory about either the Spartans themselves or Drew Stanton. So color them unconvinced, I guess; maybe when somebody else in the media says “Michigan State is good they’ll come around. As for me, I still think going into South Bend and winning counts for something, especially when Michigan couldn’t get it done in The Big House. I’m not saying Michigan’s season is over, but face it, Wolverines, you’re past due for your trip to El Paso.

NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS WE THOUGHT WE WERE 18
DREW TO AN INSIDE STRAIGHT 34

MINNESOTA @ PENN STATE

On the other hand, Minnesota’s a team having no trouble getting love right now, and it’s tempting to join in the chorus. Can’t do it, though. It’s my own fault for overestimating Purdue’s defense. The signs of incipient disaster have been there all along.

Mind, I’m not dismissing the Gophers; I’m just saying that it’s probably too soon to put them on the fast track to the conference crown. They have a great running game (duh) and Bryan Cupito is getting better. But let’s not be too quick to anoint the Gopher defense as “wonderful.” They did let Purdue back into that game, after all.

Meanwhile, while none of their victories can be called “impressive,” Penn State is 4-0 for the first time since before anybody knew how old JoePa was. Their true freshmen on offense have given the team a shot of adrenalin, and, while the defense isn’t the dominating unit I expected them to be, they haven’t lost. I know Goldy came in a couple years ago and absolutely humiliated Penn State, but right now, I’m not willing to go against JoePa in Beaver Stadium when he’s finally got momentum for the first time in years. And don’t look now, but Penn State could creep into the top 25 after this one. How big would that be?

MASON 13
DIXON 21

NOTRE DAME @ PURDUE

I’m starting to have my doubts about Joe Tiller. I’m sure he’s a nice guy, and he has brought Purdue football around (seems to have a great eye for quarterbacks, too), but why does every season wind up derailed somehow? How can you return eleven defensive starters and still not get big stops when you need them? Why doesn’t this team seem to get better with experience?

I don’t want to lock Tiller in the trunk, but, well, it’s hard not to look at what Charlie Weis has been able to do in one off-season, and wonder when Purdue’s going to over-achieve for a change. As for this game, I think Purdue will be able to score points against the fairly average Irish defense . . . just not as quickly as they’ll be giving them up on the other side of the ball.

BACK WHERE WE BELONG 38
HOLD ON LOOSELY 31

INDIANA @ WISCONSIN

Don’t be too quick to think you know how this game’s going to turn out. Strange things have been known to happen when the Hoosiers and Badgers get together, and this is easily the best Hoosier team since the pre-Cameron era. While IU hasn’t beaten anybody with a pulse (that Kentucky/Louisville game was apparently the Fluke O’ The Year), just winning three games in a row is a major accomplishment for Terry Hoeppner’s first year . . . it’s certainly more than I thought he would be able to do, after all.

Then, too, remember that Wisconsin is the team which totally stymied nearly all of its opponents last year, then looked lost against Sparty and never recovered. In other words, there’s a recent history of winning and losing the games they shouldn’t.

Does all that mean that I think IU gets over on Barry this week? No. But if this pick is wrong, I won’t be completely surprised.

AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT 24
THE LIFE OF BRIAN 34

Next week:

• Illinois @ Indiana: A “must-win” game for all the wrong reasons
• Minnesota @ Michigan: Somebody’s hopes for an eight-win season end here
• Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Another team that gives Barry fits
• Ohio State @ Penn State: Should put an end to those “Penn State is back” columns
• Iowa @ Purdue: Well, the bloom’s definitely off this rose