PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v05.7

History is bunk.–Henry Ford

Clearly, the recent history of the Big Ten is bunk, at least from the prognosticator’s point of view. The conference is starting to resemble one giant game of Calvinball, with the rules changing every other minute depending upon wind speed, moon phase, and what Joe Paterno had for lunch. A person can fracture a skull (maybe even their own) trying to figure out which Big Ten teams are clearly on their way up or down, who’s waiting to be found out, who’s been found out, and which fans should start surfing now for those cheap tickets to Nashville. It’s the old Bruce Almighty problem of everybody winning the lottery at once: When every team plays like they could wind up 9-2, it’s inevitable that everybody’s going to wind up 6-5 or something like it.

Still, despite all the historical debunking that’s gone on this season, there’s a bunch of flapdoodle passing for punditry out there, so let’s take a moment to make sloppy joes out of the sacred cows of Big Ten conventional wisdom, 2005 version:

• The Buckeyes need to do a better job of getting the ball to Ted Ginn Jr.: Yes, I’m certain Jim Tressel has forgotten that Ginn is on his roster. The Buckeyes do not need to do a better job of getting the ball to Ginn; Ginn needs to do a better job of getting open. Or else Troy Smith was a little oversold as a QB, but that would mean I was right, and those OSU bulletistas were wrong about me being wrong about their national-championship caliber team.
• Penn State doesn’t have enough offense to win in the Big House.: What, they can’t score fourteen points?
• Okay, well, they don’t have enough offense to win the Big Ten.: Oh, I love this one. Here’s who the Nits have left: Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. Of those, only Michigan State is a consistent threat to score more than three touchdowns. This is a defense which has passed two of its three toughest tests–Northwestern and Ohio State, with Sparty still looming–and could probably win with Illinois’ offense.
• Wisconsin got exposed by Northwestern last week.: No, Wisconsin got exposed by Bowling Green in week one, in the sense that their defense was shown not to be able to handle a spread-option offense with misdirection. What did get exposed last week is that Randy Walker spent a lot of time studying that game film.
• This is the year Minnesota finally breaks through to the big time: Wrong. It is far from inconcievable that the Gophers might not make a bowl this year. I could even see them losing to Indiana in Bloomington on Nov. 5. Penn State gave everybody the plan to beat the Gophers: stack eight in the box and dare Cupito to throw (more likely, dare Glen Mason to let Cupito throw). Don’t go elevating Goldy just because Lloyd Carr insisted on doing it his way.
• Illinois is terrible: I don’t think so. I just think they’re the least good of the improving teams. They could probably beat Purdue, because at least the Illini know how to tackle and don’t approach opposing ball carriers as if they might have girl germs or something.

As for the recent history of POTBT, last week was yet another 4-1 outing, making our season record 39-9 (81.3%). And this week? Probably not that good. But let’s give it a try anyway.

INDIANA @ IOWA

Well, there’s little question who gets the “most improved” title in the Big Ten this year. Terry Hoeppner has done a fantastic job starting with nothing and coming up with a good offense and enough defense to keep his team competitive. Only problem is, IU’s strength (the passing game) plays right into the best part of Iowa’s defense (the linebackers and secondary), meaning it could be a long afternoon for all sixteen Hoosier fans.

But I think IU can hang around long enough in this game to give the Hawks fits, even if I think eventually the Iowa offense will overpower them. Indiana is still a year away from winning games like this, I think. I hope.

TO THE FIRST POWERS 24
THE RIGHT WAY, THE WRONG WAY, THE GREENWAY 38

PENN STATE @ MICHIGAN

Normally I pay no attention to the point spread–that’s gambling, and I don’t go for it. But a number of talking heads have commented on the fact that, despite the fact that Penn State is 6-0 and Michigan is 3-3, the line on this game is Michigan by 3 1/2. This must mean that Vegas knows something the rest of us don’t know, so they’re going with Michigan.

What Vegas knows is that the streams are filled with shiny blue fish this week.

NO, I’M NOT RETIRING 24
SO STOP ASKING ME THAT QUESTION 20

WISCONSIN @ MINNESOTA

Here’s another game with the rank odor of lutefisk about it. Not that it won’t be a great game, but if you think that there was anything the Gophers could take away from Northwestern’s dismantling of Wisconsin last week, you deserve a big steaming plate of fish-flavored Jello. In the face. Because, while Minnesota’s offense puts up gaudier numbers, Northwestern’s scheme is infinitely more sophisticated. Brent Basanez can make NFL-type “thread the needle” passes. Bryan Cupito can’t. (They can both miss wide-open receivers equally well.) Besides, like I said, Penn State showed how to contain Minnesota. Stack the line and dare ‘em to pass. That’s how you get the Glen Mason Face. I owe TBP reader Jon a buck for this, but Wisconsin can shut down any team that tries to overpower them. Northwestern won on sheer subterfuge. Minnesota doesn’t do ninja football. That’s why the axe will hang in Madison this year.

MIFFLIN STREET CHOP-BLOCK PARTY 31
DINKYTOWN PITY PARTY 27

MICHIGAN STATE @ OHIO STATE

Woof. This’ll be at least half of a good football game, when Sparty has the ball. Otherwise, it’s all Resistable Force meets Movable Object. I think the Horseshoe factor helps Ohio State get the season back in the lunchbox.

I’M SO HAPPY ‘CUZ TODAY I FOUND MY FRIENDS 34
HEY, WAIT, I’VE GOT A NEW COMPLAINT 35

NORTHWESTERN @ PURDUE

Iowa played the spread some of the time last week and dropped 34 on the Beer-And-A-Bumps in West Lafayette. Northwestern pretty much plays the spread all the time and has a more credible running game. Granted, Iowa’s defense is just a little better than Northwestern’s defense (and by “a little” I mean “a lot”), but still, man, why does that Purdue defense refuse to get better?

WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD 41
THE GRAVEYARD YOU’RE WHISTLING PAST 28

Next week:

• Penn State @ Illinois: Like the Nits need a date with the Traveling Bye-Week Squad
• Ohio State @ Indiana: I’m tempted to slap this one with an Upset Alert
• Michigan @ Iowa: So lllllong, Llllloyd?
• Northwestern @ Michigan State: Ever wanted to see a 70-63 football game? Here ya go!
• Purdue @ Wisconsin: Will Tiller’s nightmare ever end? Yes, in four more weeks.