THE BIG TEN BOWL PICTURE

hubris (HYOO-briss) n. 1. An unfortunate belief in the power of one’s abilities, esp. in such a manner as to invite disaster; 2. see post immediately beneath this one.

2-3, and I was wrong about my own team. So the CFN guys are ahead of me, right? Wrong. I’m still two games ahead of Leshyn, and dead even with the main CFN page. Plus here you don’t have to look at any ads. But I admit my picks for this week were “flapjack nuts,” to use the parlance of our times.

Anyway, the only real question remaining is “who’s going where?” So let’s take a look:

Every team save Penn State still has two games to play, and after today’s games, six Big Ten teams are bowl-eligible: Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan and Minnesota. Three teams (Iowa, Michigan State, and Indiana) are fighting for the right to spend Christmas in Detroit. And two teams (Purdue and Illinois) will be able to make the big after-Thanksgiving sales without fear.

Of the three teams fighting for the last slot, none has an easy road. Michigan State must either win at Minnesota or at home against Penn State to clinch eligibility. Since Sparty wins when they should lose and loses when they should win, they’ll probably get killed by Minnesota and beat Penn State by 20.

Iowa needs to beat Wisconsin on the road, which seems daunting, or Minnesota at home, which is a little more likely, though probably not much.

Indiana has to beat Michigan in the Big House and beat Purdue to make a bowl game. I’d say that’s probably the longest shot, though after the Hawkeyes got beat by Lloyd Carr’s playcalling for the second consecutive game, I’m not so sure.

The title is not decided yet, but Penn State controls its fate. Beat Sparty in two weeks, and the Nits win the title outright, with the attendant BCS berth. Ohio State could still claim the title if they win out (Northwestern, @ Michigan) and Penn State loses to MSU. (PSU owns the tiebreaker by virtue of head-to-head victory.) Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Michigan can win a share of the title if a bunch of fairly improbable things happen, but cannot (I think) win the conference outright.

So anyway, here’s a team-by-team rundown of what you have to look forward to:

Illinois: Basketball season
Indiana: You control your fate: win out and you’re bowling
Iowa: The return of Gutsy Kirk, and the end of the guy who thinks he’s Jim Haslett, trying not to lose by too much
Michigan: The BCS is gone, but you can still ruin Ohio State’s season
Michigan State: If your team can play two good games back-to-back, you might get to drive a whole 45 minutes to your bowl game
Minnesota: Theoretically, it’s still possible to avoid going to Nashville again
Northwestern: A Florida bowl is within reach if you TCB
Ohio State: Back to the BCS, but only if you get a little help from Sparty
Penn State: Despite the refs’ best efforts, you’re all alone at the top
Purdue: At least next year your team won’t be overhyped
Wisconsin: Can still tie for the title; the Florida bowls are certainly interested

And my bowl projections:

BCS: Penn State
Cap One: Wisconsin
Outback: Ohio State
Alamo: Michigan
Sun: Northwestern
Music City: Michigan State
Motor City: Minnesota