PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, WEEK 13

And so it has come to this: the final real weekend of the Big Ten season, Wisconsin’s Alvarezian retirement party notwithstanding. It’s been a season of dramatic hype (and before you pundits start calling Iowa “the most underachieving team in the conference,” bear in mind that, unlike Purdue, at least Iowa is bowl-eligible), gutty victories that turned out to be once-in-a-lifetime lucky shots (hi Sparty!), conventional wisdom turned upside down (Paterno’s not done, and Joe Tiller is the Brian Billick of the Big Ten) and, of course, Illinois.

So last week POTBT went . . . well, 4-1. Again. I’m glad, because my one miss was calling for Iowa to get stomped flat by Wisconsin. I was so nervous about that game I didn’t even turn it on until the second half. Anyway, our season record is now a decent 56-17, good for 76.7%.

POTBT will pick all the Big Ten bowl games approximately as soon as the bids are announced. How does the bowl picture shape up right now, heading into Cultural Expectation Rivalry Weekend? I’m glad you asked, and by “glad” I mean “not glad.” Because this goofiness is hard to figure out.

One thing we know for certain: if Penn State beats the Spartans in this weekend’s We Have No Rival For You Land Grant Trophy game, they win the conference outright and get the automatic BCS bid. If they should lose, the winner of (sigh) the Ohio State-Michigan game will get the conference crown. tOSU would win the conference outright with a Penn State loss and a victory over TSUN; a PSU loss coupled with a Michigan victory would create a three-way tie, but Michigan would hold all the tiebreaks.

Without a victory over tOSU, Michigan will finish fourth in the conference. They would be tied outright with Wisconsin, but Wisconsin holds the tie-break (as if that matters). Minnesota can finish (I think) no better than fifth with a victory over Iowa. Iowa could finish fourth if they beat Minny and Illinois beats Northw . . . Iowa can’t finish any better than fifth, either. Northwestern will finish fourth if after they beat Illinois, unless Penn State wins and Ohio State beats Michigan. Sparty can claim bowl eligibility with a win at home over Penn State, but can’t finish any higher than eighth in the conference even if that does happen. Meanwhile, Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois are naught but stale cornbread, waiting to be stuffed into the turkey butt of history.

All this is a very complicated way of saying “I’oan know” to the question “where’s my team going?” But after I’ve actually picked the games, I’ll try to put it all together for you . . . and me. Anon!

NORTHWESTERN @ ILLINOIS

This game will almost certainly be played on Saturday.

BASANEZ 48
PASSIN’ DAYS 13

PURDUE @ INDIANA

Who would have guessed, back in August, that (a) these two teams would have the same record coming into this game, and (b) there would be nothing at stake except for statewide bragging rights? Purdue is starting to pour it on, sorta, having strung two victories in a row. Over Michigan State and, of course, Illinois. Their first two victories since September 17. When they beat Arizona.

So maybe Tiller’s squad is more swagger than stagger right now. Indiana has been a bit of a disappointment, having beaten only one team in conference this year. (I’ll let you guess who.) But the Hoosiers are a lot better than I thought they would be this year. I’m just not sure that ultimately they have enough left in the tank to beat the Ravens Boilermakers.

KIRSCH ME, YOU’RE MY FAVORITE PAINTER 34
ARS LONGA, SEASON BREVIS 17

MINNESOTA @ IOWA

Hoo boy. I really don’t know what to do about this one. Minnesota is the Big Ten team nobody wants to talk about. Their only losses are to Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. That’s a pretty solid resume, although only two of their victories (Michigan and . . . uhh . . . Tulsa) are over bowl-eligible teams. Ne’ertheless, that’s one more bowl-eligible team than Iowa has beaten. Still, the Hawkeyes were impressive last week, holding Wisconsin to just 19 yards of rushing. Can they do the same thing this week, at home, against the now-healthy Laurence Maroney?

I want to say yes. I believe in the Power of the Pig. Floyd belongs at home. And it’s time to reestablish a new home winning streak. Kirk Ferentz can outcoach Glen Mason eleven Saturdays out of ten. But this is the best Gopher team since the Murray Warmarth days. I wanna believe. I just can’t.

WE’LL DROP THE PIG OFF IN AUSTIN 26
SPEAKING OF DROPOFF . . . 23

OHIO STATE @ MICHIGAN

No, I really don’t care who wins this game either. I mean, it’s obviously tremendously important. Could even decide the conference title. I see it, on paper, as a mismatch. A good-but-not-great Michigan offense against a Kaopectatian tOSU defense. A good-but-not-great Ohio State offense against an underachieving Michigan defense. Lloyd “Three Yards and a Cloud of Recriminations” Carr against Jim “We’ll Break Their Shins, and After That We’ll Hurt ‘Em” Tressel. How much is the Big House really worth in a game like this? It’s worth something . . . but not enough.

HELLO LARRY? 27
ONE DAY AT A TIME 20

PENN STATE @ MICHIGAN STATE

Conventional wisdom, POTBT style, says that, since Sparty has no chance of winning this game, they almost certainly will do so. But Sparty has controverted conventional wisdom on multiple occasions this year. The most important way is that, as the year has gone on, they’ve gotten worse. Their point-a-minute offense is now more a what’s-the-point offender. When I took golf in college, I got worse as the quarter went on. I barely passed. Sparty may not be so lucky.

EVERYTHING’S COMING UP TORTILLA CHIPS 41
GONE LIKE OLDSMOBILE 16

Oh yeah . . . and Wisconsin over Hawaii.

So at the end of the weekend, it’ll be Penn State to the BCS, tOSU in second, Wisconsin in third (?), Minnesota in fourth (??), Michigan in fifth (??!? But that’s how it would pan out if what I say comes true . . . remember, Wisky and Minny BOTH beat the Wolverines), Northwestern in sixth, and Iowa to Detroit. That is an absolutely ridiculous chain of wreckage. I suggest you don’t believe it.

Next POTBT as soon as I’ve had a chance to digest the bowl pairings. As always, thanks for reading, and don’t hurt nobody.