PRESEASON BLOGPOLL BALLOT

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Notre Dame	25
2	Texas	24
3	Ohio State	23
4	Southern Cal	22
5	Louisiana State	21
6	West Virginia	20
7	Florida	19
8	Iowa	18
9	Auburn	17
10	Louisville	16
11	Cal	15
12	Nebraska	14
13	Wisconsin	13
14	Arkansas	12
15	Penn State	11
16	Georgia Tech	10
17	Alabama	9
18	Michigan	8
19	Iowa State	7
20	Miami (Florida)	6
21	Northern Illinois	5
22	Boston College	4
23	Virginia Tech	3
24	Texas Tech	2
25	UCLA	1

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN 2006 SEASON PREVIEW

We will not mince words: the sudden passing of Randy Walker has totally dimmed our enthusiasm for getting this season preview finished. Here at TBP International HQ, we will miss Walker’s special brand of ninja football, a style of play completely suited for a team completely unsuited for its conference. While we wish the third runner-up in the Peyton Manning Lookalike Contest the best of luck in his new job, Randy Walker is irreplaceable. So, if this season preview lacks the zazz of previous editions, there’s why. We don’t wanna throw Northwestern under the bus, but we always try to be pretty sanguine about what’s likely to happen.

Looking back at the ‘05/06 bowls: Do we have to?

The top three Big Ten bowl teams of last season (Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin) won their games while the bottom four (Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan) didn’t. You could argue that the top-tier performance shows how strong a conference the Big Ten was last season. You could also argue that the weak performance of the lower-echelon teams shows how the Big Ten wasn’t such a great conference last season. For that matter, you could also argue that Tuesday’s salad displaces the spectrum of anti-harmonic rat sniffles.

The coaching situation is always in flux

There were no firings in the offseason. One or two might have been justified. But that doesn’t mean there are no new coaches in the conference, of course. A couple of first-time head coaches distressingly close to my own age will make their debuts on Big Ten sidelines this season. Bret Bielema takes over for Barry Alvarez in Wisconsin, in an orderly transition which was first announced a year ago. Pat Fitzgerald will try to fill Randy Walker’s place at Northwestern.

OK, we got all that out of the way. Now, on to the real coaching question heading into this season, namely, who’s gonna get whacked if their seasons don’t pan out? You know there are three coaches still in their honeymoon suites: Bielema, Fitzgerald, and Indiana’s Terry Hoeppner, who survived off-season brain cancer surgery. Ron Zook should be on this list, but I’m not sure he really is. Then there’s the success-related untouchables: Jim Tressel at tOSU and Kirk Ferentz at Iowa. Only the NCAA can dislodge Tressel, while the Hawkeye faithful no longer wonder if their beloved coach will be connected with NFL vacancies; it’s only a question of which ones. (Personally, I think Brian Billick is keeping Ferentz’s seat warm in Balitmore.) Paterno, of course, is a special case; last season’s success has merely resolidified his right to write his own ending.

So what about the other four (or five) coaches? Lloyd Carr ought to be untouchable–he did win a national title, you know–but the grumblings emanating from the Big House are starting to find some resonance. Another season like last season could put Carr out on the street. Purdue’s Joe Tiller, meanwhile, probably cashed in all of his goodwill after last season’s team failed to come close to the lofty preseason projections. A bowl game might be necessary to save his job. Same goes for Sparty’s John L. Smith, who has yet to get his team to swallow the lithium. Meanwhile, Glen Mason got his contract extension in Minneapolis, but if I were him, I’d be worried. Now that the on-campus stadium deal is done, he’s got maybe one or two more seasons to get away with 6-5 records. The taxpayers will be expecting something for their money, after all.

And now, the actual previews

ILLINOIS: DON’T USE DYNASTY MODE

Trendy though it may be to disparage Ron Zook, his first season in Champaign wasn’t a complete flop. He didn’t have much to work with, after all. Even though the record was as dismal as anything Brother Of Norv ever put up, the Illini were much more competitive last season. Figure on this as another season where the Illini’s improvements may not show up in the league standings. The defense was pretty dreadful last year, and the roster still has a distinct lack of playmakers. Not yet, Angry Indigenous Woodlands People, but soon.

Illinois will not face Michigan or Minnesota this year.

Preseason award: Give The Zooker the Willy Loman Fedora for his magnificent job of recruiting; not many 2-9 teams land a consensus top-30 recruiting class.

INDIANA: HOEPP DREAMS

IU coach Terry Hoeppner is now 1-0 against brain tumors, and that’s a bigger victory than anything. Last year’s Hoosiers were markedly better, managing to stay in nearly every game. Still, without amazing progress on both sides of the ball, IU will struggle to get back above .500 this year. Really, I could’ve just rerun the Illinois preview here, except that Indiana won’t play Penn State or Northwestern this year.

Preseason award: IU gets this year’s Tom Bodett Turned-Off Motel 6 Lightbulb for what amounts to a five-game home stand to open the season. Technically, their September 9th game against Ball State is a roadie, but c’mon.

IOWA: THE AMAZING INFLATABLE EXPECTATIONS

Again this year, some pundits are calling the Hawkeyes a dark-horse national title contender, noting that Iowa’s line play improved swiftly during last season, and most of those linemen return. So does quarterback Drew Tate, currently flying just under the Heisman radar. But any team that has to replace Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway, along with both starting cornerbacks and a wide receiver corps, probably isn’t deep enough to make a run at all the glory. A BCS bid isn’t out of the question, though. Iowa will not play Penn State or Michigan State this season.

Preseason award: The Hans Brinker Silver Skates go to defensive ends Kenny Iwebema and Bryan Mattison, who will need to maintain their high level of play from the very outset as the Hawks break in a mostly-new linebacking corps.

MICHIGAN: SOMEWHERE UNDER THE SEA

Look, there’s a lot of Big Ten teams that would be happy with back-to-back five-loss seasons, since that would necessarily entail back-to-back seven-win seasons. But this is Michigan we’re talking about, and apparently not even a national title can buy a coach tenure any more. And it’s strange, but I can’t remember a year when I didn’t think Michigan was one of the three best teams in the Big Ten before the season started. However, this year I’d put them no better than fourth, and that scares me. Michigan doesn’t have off years. So I’m deeply suspicious of the fact that I don’t see the Wolverines making a big improvement this season. I know Carrthulhu is just waiting to rise. But he won’t be consuming the souls of Illinois or Purdue.

Preseason award: I’m granting quarterback Chad Henne the Bird-Smacked Window of Transparent Competence for his work past season. 23 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and still, everybody talks about Drew Tate and Troy Smith when they mention Big Ten QBs.

MICHIGAN STATE: UNLITHIATED

Watching Sparty this year could be like watching the Jerry Lewis telethon used to be. You just know that at some point they’re going to lose it completely because, well, they’re Sparty, and that’s what they do. They win the games they shouldn’t, and they lose the games they shouldn’t. Look for Gang Green to light up the scoreboard this year with an amazingly deep and talented offense. Unfortunately, look for them to do the same thing on defense. No Iowa or Wisconsin games this season.

Preseason award: In East Lansing, we’re installing the Harry Caray Babelfish for visiting announcers. Just take a look at Sparty’s roster, then tell me how to pronounce “Nwagbuo.”

MINNESOTA: NO PRESSURE HERE

Glen Mason got his extension, but the university made him sweat. Now he’s going to make the university sweat, as he heads into this season without a dominant running back for the first time in about seven years. Can they suddenly start passing the ball as well as they’ve always run it? Or will some unheralded running back step into the Jackson/Barber/Maroney void and keep the ball rolling? And how will the Gophers fare without Illinois and Northwestern games, plus road trips to Madison and Columbus? Oh well. At least they can never go back to the Music City Bowl.

Preseason award: Glen Mason gets the Anti-Snyder Exploding Cupcake for finally scheduling a challenging non-conference road game, at California. It almost makes up for this season’s home tilts with Kent State, Temple, and North Dakota State. Almost.

NORTHWESTERN: THE CURSE OF LOW EXPECTATIONS

Nobody wants to say it after all the Cats have been through since late June, but this team was likely to take a step backwards this season anyway. Brett Basanez is the only QB they’d known for four seasons. The defense was somewhat depleted by graduations as well. Pleasant-surprise RB Tyrell Sutton returns, though, which mitigates some of the existential dread for Cats fans heading into Pat Fitzgerald’s first season. The name of the game for this year is to pull it together and point towards the future, though. That’s not to say Northwestern can’t upset a team or two along the way, though it won’t happen to Indiana or Minnesota this season.

Preseason award: The whole team gets the Journey Of A Thousand Miles Insole for starting with a single step.

OHIO STATE: THE BEST AND BRIGHTEST

If the Big Ten has a shot at a national title this year, it’s on the backs of the Bucks. Losing an entire linebacking corps and a great receiver in Santonio Holmes, coupled with a Week Two rematch with Texas in Austin, means that the Bucks had better start fast and keep running. Look for Ted Ginn Jr. not to live up to all the hype, as he figures to be double-teamed most of the time until a viable #2 receiver asserts himself, and look for teams to go West Coast on the Buckeyes in order to test out the potentially squishy linebacker situation. Still, all the elements are there for Ohio State to make another run for all the marbles. Purdue and Wisconsin don’t factor in to this year’s plans, though.

Preseason award: The Glue Factory Trophy For Softening Up That Dead Horse goes to all the pundits who somehow think that Maurice Clarett and his unfortunate situation has anything at all to do with Ohio State football in 2006.

PENN STATE: A RIDDELL WRAPPED IN AN ENIGMA

Okay, football geniuses, what’s the fluke: last season’s coulda-woulda-shoulda Nittany Lions, or the teams from the preceding five seasons? Did JoePa return to form last year, or did the Nits just overachieve spectacularly? We’ll know by the end of September, after PSU visits South Bend and Columbus, home to two legitimate national title contenders. If the Nits survive both those road trips, it could be clear sailing the rest of the way. If not, not.

Preseason award: The Deion Sanders Feathered Cap of Versatility goes to Justin King, only a sophomore and already one of the most dangerous gamebreakers on either side of the ball.

PURDUE: OVERPURDUE

Last season wasn’t supposed to be like that. Everybody was all over Purdue in the preseason, noting that virtually ever starter returned, and the Trainbuilders wouldn’t face Michigan or Ohio State. The same is more or less true this year, but the expectations are much lower after all the agony of last year. Head coach Joe Tiller felt the pressure and may not survive another bowl-less season. Of course, with this year’s schedule and all the talent he’s got coming back, he’d better make it to a bowl game.

Preseason award: Purdue has roundly earned the Marcel Duchamp Non-Trophy for Outstanding Achievement in Schedule Dadaism. Purdue’s homecoming is set for September 23 against Minnesota. It comes on the heels of home games against Indiana State, Fake Miami, and Ball State, meaning that, technically, Purdue’s homecoming occurs before they have actually gone anywhere.

WISCONSIN: IS BRET THE NEW BRETT?

It was an orderly transition from Alvarez to Bielema, mostly because everybody knew the change was coming before the season even started. Now the Badgers enter the season after a rather turbulent offseason involving lots of Booker Stanley-related drama and a sudden John Stocco injury of unknown duration. Stocco may be back for the start of the season, but at this point, everything’s up in the air. Tyler Donovan is likely to be the Badgers’ QB if Stocco isn’t ready. Absent Brian Calhoun, the running game looks to step back, and the Badger defense could stand some general improvement. However, the schedule gods have smiled upon Lake Mendota. Bucky’s non-conference games will be against a rebuilding Bowling Green, Chuck Long’s San Diego State crew, 1-AA Western Illinois, and perennial placeholder Buffalo. There are tough road trips to Ann Arbor and Iowa City, but otherwise, it’s hard to argue that the Badgers don’t have the conference’s easiest schedule.

Preseason award: The Large Order of Freedom Fries goes to the numerous Badger faithful who got wadded up over rumors that their new coach (an Iowa grad) has a tattoo of the Hawkeye logo. This caused some to question Bielema’s loyalty. Look, it’s easy to change where you are. It’s much harder to change where you’re from. Should Bielema renounce his alma mater because he now works for a rival? And does anybody seriously think any coach would deliberately tank a game to a heated rival? Hey, I heard a rumor that Mike McCarthy might start Aaron Rodgers in the season opener just to send a message that it’s no longer business as usual in Green Bay! There, I just gave Wisconsin talk radio the only topic it’ll need for the next three weeks.

PREDICTED (AND CERTAINLY WRONG) ORDER OF FINISH

1. Ohio State (11-1 overall, 8-0 in conference): A great team, but they won’t win in Austin.
2. Iowa (11-1, 7-1): But I’m certainly wrong.
3. Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2): Huge assist from the schedule.
4. Penn State (10-2, 6-2):So help me, I think they’ll beat Notre Dame.
5. Michigan (8-4, 5-3): Like I said, not among the top teams in the conference. Please don’t eat me, Carrthulhu.
6. Purdue (7-6, 3-5): Gets the nod over the other 3-5s thanks to the Hawaii game.
7. Indiana (6-6, 3-5): Hoeppner takes IU one step closer to credibility.
8. Michigan State (6-6, 3-5): Start looking for a CUSA coach ready to move up. Wait, that didn’t work.
9. Illinois (5-7, 2-6): Give Zooker two more years, he’ll have his team in a bowl.
10. Northwestern (3-9, 1-7): Thus spoiling the Disney movie.
11. Minnesota (3-9, 0-8): Out-talented by every Big Ten team they face except maybe Indiana.