PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, V2006.03

Like I’ve said before, I hate these dorkwad I-A/I-AA matchups. For the year so far, I’m 20-2 (91%), having been wrong about Northwestern twice. TWICE. Elsewhere in the conference, Illinois is terrible, just terrible, and a couple other teams in the conference (including my own) look like the only bowl they’ll be going to this year is the bowl where things swirl around real fast before disappearing down the drain hole forever.

Ohio State is #1 everywhere except on my Blogpoll ballot, or so it seems. Their victory over Texas was impressive, I think, but I still just like ND better. Or not, as you will see in just a few moments.

There are some pretty good matchups this week, with five of the eleven games approaching watchability.

SYRACUSE @ ILLINOIS

Disrespect the Cuse? What sort of chastened idiot do you take me for?

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS @ INDIANA

IU coach Terry Hoeppner will miss this game, and a couple more, due to brain surgery related to his recent bout with brain cancer. We wish him the best. As we all know, however, nothing good comes of these I-AA games lately. Fortunately for IU, Southern Illinois is a run-first team, while Indiana has been Kaopectate against the run so far this season. Yes, they’ve only played Western Michigan and Ball State. Southern Illinois has only played Lock Haven, a Division II school from Pennsylvania. This won’t be a walkover for the Hoosiers, especially with a serious off-the-field distraction, but they should win this game without trying too hard.

IOWA STATE @ IOWA

Now comes yet another impossible-to-pick game, the second of several in this last week before the conference season. Thus far, there’s much for Hawkeye fans to be concerned about. The team roundly defeated I-AA Montana in a laugher, then got the fight of their lives from Syracuse–Syracuse!–last week in a game they probably should have lost. Factor in that Dan McCarney is and has always been Kirk Ferentz’s bête noire (the Captain is 2-5 against Mac; if not for Jim Tressel, that would be Ferentz’s worst record against any coach he’s faced more than twice) and everything seems to point to an(other) Iowa defeat.

To be fair, it’s not like Iowa State has been a swirling white-hot vortex of excellence through the first two weeks of the season. The Cyclopaths needed triple OT to put away Toledo in week one, while last week’s UNLV game came down to a (supposedly) controversial call on a last-second TD which would have given UNLV a chance to win the game. In both games, the ISU offense was less than wonderful, but the defense came up big when necessary.

Still, looking at the matchups across the board, there is much which seems to favor Iowa State. In particular, they simply have more defensive playmakers right now than the Hawkeyes do. Drew Tate will start for Iowa (as of right now, at least), but you have to wonder if he’s really over that abdominal strain. It’s not like you can really rest your abs, after all. It looks very much like a long day–and a rare home loss–for the Hawks in the ‘06 iteration of what has become one of the greatest grudge matches in college football. It may not get the press of tOSU-Michigan or Auburn-Alabama, but the hate is right there, and for the last few years, these teams have been on a level playing field.

MICHIGAN @ NOTRE DAME

Welcome to the pick where I completely invalidate my Blogpoll ballot, where I still have Notre Dame over Ohio State. I can’t explain why, because I think Notre Dame is better at every position except maybe offensive line, but I just have a feeling–call it a vision–that Michigan is going to win this game. I really need to start going to bed earlier.

MICHIGAN STATE @ PITTSBURGH

Two teams, two coaches, going in different directions. John L. Smith is on so many hot-seat lists his butt cheeks have turned into welding gloves, while Dave Wannstedt has Pitt off to a good start, even though they really haven’t played anybody yet. For the benefit of typically cynical Wolverine fans, I’ll just say that I do indeed think Tyler Palko is a better QB than Drew Stanton, so stop reading your rivals’ message boards. I’m starting to get the feeling that the Big East may not be as woebegone as every preseason preview made them out to be. This will be a good game, but I think Pitt should handle Sparty.

TEMPLE @ MINNESOTA

Like I’ve said before, Temple joining the MAC is the greatest gift ever to the Big Ten.

EASTERN MICHIGAN @ NORTHWESTERN

Fresh off a sound I-AA drubbing that everyone but me saw coming, Northwestern gets one of college football’s greatest palliatives: A home date with good ol’ EMU. Eastern Michigan, through two games, has given up 9 passing touchdowns, the most in Division I-A. The second-most is 6. Northwestern this year isn’t really a passing team, but this week they probably will be.

CINCINNATI @ OHIO STATE

This could be a trap game. No really, it could. All the elements are there. tOSU is fresh off a huge road win in Austin, there’s the Big Ten season opener next week, Cincinnati is very easy to overlook, just about every other top-25 team is playing a bigger game this week . . . I mean, it could happen. But it won’t. One of the things that impresses me the most about Jim Tressel is that his teams always show up. Except against San Diego State a couple years ago, of course. Even then, they still won.

YOUNGSTOWN STATE @ PENN STATE

I never spend much time in school but I taught ladies plenty. It’s true I hire my body out for pay, hey hey. I’ve gotten burned over Cheryl Tiegs, blown up for Raquel Welch. But when I end up in the hay it’s only hay, hey hey. I might jump an open drawbridge, or Tarzan from a vine. ‘Cause I’m the unknown stuntman that makes Eastwood look so fine.

BALL STATE @ PURDUE

Don’t know if you caught it, but Ball State pretty much took it to Indiana for most of the game last week, while the Boilermakers needed overtime to get by Fake Miami, a team manhandled by Northwestern (did you know they lost to a I-AA school last week?) in week one. Of course, that IU/BSU game was in Muncie, and we all know what a snakepit that place is. Purdue being Purdue, they’ll let the Cardinals hang around for too long, but the outcome of this game is not really in doubt.

CHUCK LONG @ BRET BIELEMA

Don’t look now, but San Diego State has one of the top ten defenses through two games, and it’s not like they’ve been playing service academies. Even though SDSU has lost twice, they’ve managed to stymie UTEP and Utah, and last I checked, those were two pretty good offenses. But, since SDSU can’t beat a ‘u’ team, how can they beat a ‘w’ team? This one may be a lot closer than the Badger faithful will be comfortable with (especially after last week’s sorry effort against Western Illinois), but they’ll be partying on State Street after this one. Of course, they’d be partying after a loss, too.

Next week’s games:

• Iowa @ Illinois: You better hope I’m wrong about Iowa State, Zooker
• Connecticut @ Indiana: Big East PWN3R5H1P of the Big Ten continues
• Wisconsin @ Michigan: It was looking like such a good season for the Badgers, too
• Notre Dame @ Michigan State: Revenge is a dish best served at about room temperature
• Minnesota @ Purdue: Somebody’s bowl hopes end here
• Northwestern @ Nevada: Yeah, I know: At?
• Penn State @ Ohio State: Big Ten Championship Game