PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, V2006.04

Again, I am frightened and confused by these verkokte I-AA games. Southern Illinois managed to get over on Indiana last week, and even if IU was understandably distracted, there’s no way a competent Big Ten team should lose to a I-AA opponent, ever. Which raises the question, I suppose, of whether IU is a competent Big Ten team.

It raises the question of whether I’ve been sprinkling ketamine on my corn flakes, too, as I noted last week that nothing good comes of these matchups, and IU was certainly not playing within their normal mental framework, yet still failed to call the upset. I biffed on Sparty/Pitt, severely. I also missed Iowa/Iowa State, though I was glad to be wrong. I won’t underestimate the Hawkeye defense again, I promise.

So now my season record is 28-5 (84.8%), meaning I’m currently not even good enough to pick for Yahoo Sports. I can, however, proudly say that this site matches the performance of College Football News without cramming 38,423 browser-bogging Flash ads onto every page. The day I can’t beat them will be the day I join a fantasy figure skating league.

The conference season has finally arrived, meaning that I no longer have to pick eleven games a week. This week’s total is down to a more manageable seven. And we start with a doozysnoozy:

IOWA @ ILLINOIS

Speaking of frightening and confusing, there’s the Illini and more specifically their head coach. Apparently the Zooker is uncertain whether he should start senior quarterback Tim Brasic or freshman Isiah “Juice” Williams. This could be a bit of what’s known around my house as “drama for your mama;” i.e., Zook may already have made the decision and is engaging in this soliloquy to keep the faithful faithful and to keep the Hawkeyes guessing. That would be a shrewd move. Let’s face it, Zook isn’t exactly known for making shrewd moves.

So maybe he’s really torn up about his decision. Brasic knows the system, after all, and he’s started a small passel of Big Ten games before. Williams has been a bit erratic against the fairly mellow competition Illinois has faced thus far. Throwing him into the mix against a rapidly improving Hawkeye defense might be too much to ask of the young man; a disastrous start to his Big Ten career could linger in his head for years. Juice Williams is the Illini QB of the future; Zook has to live in the present.

On the other hand, Williams is clearly a playmaker. Illinois is a team that currently is out-talented by almost every team it faces. Without somebody dangerous to make a difference, the Illini go from having little hope for victory to having no hope. Williams may get knocked around and make some mistakes but, even though I’m sure Tim Brasic is a nice guy who turns in his homework on time and always pays his share of the cable bill, he’s not a playmaker. He’s a game manager. He’s not likely to make a positive difference in this or any other game.

Thus the Zookian conundrum. If he starts Brasic, he is in effect saying that the Illini have a chance to win games in the Big Ten if they stick to their game plan and don’t make mistakes. Zook may well believe this. It’s doubtful anyone else does. If he starts Williams, though, he is in effect conceding this season and saying it’s more important to get Juice the reps he needs to be good in the future than it is to stay competitive this season. I think. I’m not really sure Illinois could win more than four games with Peyton Manning at quarterback.

Anyway, this windy digression is moot. Both Brasic and Williams will play on Sunday. That means Illinois has succumbed to the lure of the Two-Headed Quarterbeast, and you all know how much we love that creature ’round these parts. You only play two QBs if you know you don’t have one.

Oh, and Iowa? Pretty good, but just waiting to be found out, I fear. Of course, if they can win nine games with no running backs, I suppose anything is possible.

CONNECTICUT @ INDIANA

The good news is that Indiana coach Terry Hoeppner is doing much better and plans to return to the team after this game. The bad news is that Hoeppner plans to return to the team after this game. Last week’s loss to an out-of-state I-AA directional school probably doesn’t bode well for the rest of the year, but at least this off-the-field distraction is finally going to be behind IU. Know what else will be behind IU? All of UConn’s running backs. The Hoosiers gave up more than five yards a carry last week. The Huskies are running for 275 yards a game. But look at the bright side, Indiana faithful (if there are any); with all that running, this game will be over quick.

WISCONSIN @ MICHIGAN

Forgive the Badger fans for looking a bit downcast this week. Not only are the Packers a whirling vortex of agony, but (a) they all know what Michigan did to Notre Dame last week, and (b) they all sat through last week’s “will somebody please score a point so we can go home” defensive slugfest with . . . uhh . . . San Diego State. This week promises to be more of the same, for both schools, really. Michigan’s rush defense is the nation’s best; the Wolverines have given up a total of 62 yards . . . in three games. Expect the Wolverines to stymie megafrosh running back PJ Hill Jr. all day long, forcing the Badgers to throw the ball. On the other side of the ball, Michigan may not run away with this game like they did last week, as Wisconsin’s defense is notably stout and well-balanced. The Mario Manningham For Heisman campaign may lose a little steam this week, but Michigan won’t.

NOTRE DAME @ MICHIGAN STATE

Every week has one impossible-to-pick game, it seems. Here’s this week’s. Normally you’d expect a team like Notre Dame to squash Sparty like a frost-damaged tomato in this game, seeing how the Irish are coming off an embarrassing, season-altering loss to Michigan. Factor in the revenge factor, as Sparty showed up the Irish in South Bend last year, and the fear factor would look to be off the charts. Further exacerbating the possibilities for a seismic event is Michigan State coming off a big win last week against a Pitt team that suddenly doesn’t look so good–uh oh, here comes the hubris. It’s all there. Michigan State just has to lose this game.

But remember, we have three basic rules for POTBT: (1) Competition creates competitors, a/k/a the Glen Mason Cupcake Puking Postulate, (2) Nobody succeeds in the Big Ten without playmakers, but sometimes just one playmaker is enough, a/k/a the Drew Tate Theorem, and (3) figure out what Michigan State ought to do in a given game, then predict them to do the exact opposite. Because Michigan State can’t win this game, they obviously will. But that’s trumped by the fact that, since Michigan State is not ranked in the top 25, Notre Dame simply must beat them.

NORTHWESTERN @ NEVADA

At first, I thought it would be a long season for Northwestern. Then they played well in a brutal game against Fake Miami. So I thought perhaps I’d underestimated Pat Fitzgerald’s squad. Then NU lost to New Hampshire and became the first team in 73 years not to throw for a touchdown against Eastern Michigan. Meanwhile, Fake Miami lost to Purdue and–gadzooks!–Kent State. So I guess I was right anyway.

Nevada, meanwhile, has lost to Fresno State and Arizona State, two perpetually overrated West Coast teams whose continued absence from the national scene is usually cited as evidence of East Coast media bias, even though the Bulldogs and Sun Devils always seem to come up short when the college football world is watching. Last week the Wolfpack manhandled Colorado State 28-10. QB Jeff Rowe is a two-tool threat, the sort of player NU’s defense hasn’t faced and probably can’t handle. I’m not sure if Reno counts as “playing at altitude,” but I don’t see Northwestern walking away a winner. Not even at sea level.

PENN STATE @ OHIO STATE

I don’t wanna say “no chance” here. Penn State is probably not quite as good as it was last year, but last year they were quite good indeed. Still, on the road with a green QB against the #1 team in the country, you can’t like their chances. Then again, tOSU’s “bend but don’t break” defense may eventually put them at risk in an otherwise unlosable game. Could happen. It just won’t be this week.

MINNESOTA @ PURDUE

The most fraudulent 3-0 team in the conference faces the most fraudulent 2-1 team in the conference. Purdue’s offense is rolling down the field. So is their defense, with the Trainbuilders being particularly awful against the pass. How awful? Only Central Florida and Boston College have given up more yards. Only Utah State, UCF, Indiana, and Eastern Michigan have given up more touchdowns.

If only Minnesota could throw the ball.

Next week’s games:

• Wisconsin @ Indiana: Welcome back, Coach
• Ohio State @ Iowa: Why does everybody think this is a trap game for tOSU?
• Illinois @ Michigan State: Take the over
• Michigan @ Minnesota: Shattering Goldy’s delusions of adequacy
• Purdue @ Notre Dame: Pete’s season goes off track here
• Northwestern @ Penn State: Ought to temporarily quiet the BWI crowd