THIS POST IS BELOW .500

So last night I was watching the local sports when the announcer said that the Milwaukee Brewers’ road record this year is 25-52. Deplorable. Also typical. What the dude said next, though, completely set me off.

You know it can’t be anything to do with baseball. I don’t care about baseball. No, what had me steaming was when he said that the Brewers were “27 games below .500 on the road.” You hear this all the time. It’s one of those basic sports equations: Losses - Wins = Number of games below .500. 52 - 25 = 27. Right?

If only it were true.

Recalling that a .500 winning percentage means the number of wins and losses are equal, it’s easy to see how that particular equation is dead wrong, particularly in a sport where (except for the 2002 All Star Game) ties aren’t possible. Every game ends in either a win or a loss. Therefore, determine how far a team is below .500, you must determine how many game results must be changed to get an equal number of wins and losses.

The catch is that, since the number of games played remains constant, that means every time you change one number, the other number changes too. Let’s try it, using the 2006 Brewers’ road record as an example. We start with their actual record of 25-52. Now let’s change one loss at a time into a win and see how many steps it take to get the wins above the losses.

Well, would you look at that! We only have to change 13.5 game results to get the Brewers to .500! So how can you say the Brew Crew is 27 below .500 on the road? The real answer is that they’re 13.5 games below .500 on the road. That’s still not good, but it’s not nearly as depressing.

It works the other way, too. You’ll hear an NFL team which finishes 10-6 described as “4 games above .500″ but the real number is only 2. See? Things in sports are never as bad (or as good) as they seem at first glance. Even if Temple goes 0-for-2006, the worst they can finish is 6 games below .500.

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, V2006.05

If these predictions suck, it’s not my fault . . . I had an allergic reaction to Michigan State’s defensive playcalling.

Nope, not a special ‘tribute’ edition of POTBT this week. Just a little note to celebrate the fact that we went 7-0 last week, making us 35-5 (87.5%) on the year and putting us one game ahead of CFN. It’s their own fault for picking Minnesota on the road against an opponent with an offense. Have you not learned that Glen Mason’s teams just don’t play defense, especially on the road?

Anyway, after last week’s slate of pretty good games, things back off this week, with only one game approaching “must watch” status . . . but it’s a killer. Enough preliminaries; on to the picks.

WISCONSIN @ INDIANA

Nobody likes to talk about the “quality loss” but if any team in the Big Ten can right now, it’s Wisconsin. Apart from horrible play in the punt-return game (on both sides of the ball), Bucky hung in there pretty well against Michigan last week. No, PJ Hill didn’t run wild, but the Badgers ran the ball against the Wolverines much better than anyone else had. Of course, that could’ve been predicted.

Indiana, on the other hand, hasn’t shown anything yet. The Hoosiers are dead last by a large margin in the conference in rushing offense, and they don’t defend the run very well either. After last week’s comedy of errors with Connecticut, IU will be glad to have Terry Hoeppner back on the sidelines, but they’re badly overmatched here. Badly.

OHIO STATE @ IOWA

Here’s this week’s College Game Day stop, formerly a sign of the most important game being played during the weekend, now a sign of the most important game not being played in the SEC. But this is the first real conference test for the Buckeyes, and Kinnick has become a major snakepit since the Hawkeyes got good again.

It’ll take a lot of Kinnick magic to overcome tOSU’s advantages in every phase of the game except maybe special teams. If Iowa can somehow implement some minor variant on the West Coast offense, exploiting 6-7 tight end Scott Chandler’s height, and the Hawks can manage to exploit tOSU’s only middling rush defense, then there’s a chance. If not, not, because Iowa hasn’t faced an offense that’s even close to Ohio State’s. I hate to say it, but I’m voting ‘not.’

ILLINOIS @ MICHIGAN STATE

Normally my Sparty pick is a metapick: Figure out what Sparty ought to do, then pick the opposite. That would make this easy. Since Illinois is a perfectly disregardable opponent, there’s no way Michigan State can win.

Last week’s Notre Dame debacle, though, introduces an unwelcome fork into the Sparty Logic Tree. There’s no question this was the annual Season-Sinking Heartbreaking Loss, but is the next branch on the tree the Total Failure To Show Up, or the Post-Traumatic Exorcism? Unable to decide, I am forced to turn to actual football considerations.

Sparty’s blitzophilia should be on full display, since it’s likely that Juice Williams will start for the Angry Indigenous Woodlands People. Williams will be dangerous in another year or so–real dangerous–but for **CLANK**!

(Huh. Where did that football come from?)

Anyway, Williams is pretty much Illinois’ only playmaker, and a consistent Sparty blitz should keep him on his heels throwing incompletions all day long. I think. With MSU, who can tell anymore?

MICHIGAN @ MINNESOTA

It’s trendy, oh so trendy, to say that Minnesota has a chance in this game because of their traditionally solid rushing attack. Bad call. Cal–Cal!–held Goldy to just over 100 yards on the ground, and megaback Amix Pinnix couldn’t find paydirt last week against Purdue, this despite rushing for a buck and three-quarters. Minnesota is also next-to-last in the conference in yards allowed per game, and it’s not like they’ve been playing WAC teams from the late 90s. Temple ran for 112 yards on Goldy. Oyd (you can’t call him Lloyd until he’s got 2 Ls) keeps the ball rolling; Minnesota starts pondering Glen Freakin’ Mason’s buyout.

PURDUE @ NOTRE DAME

Thanks to last week’s meltdown, Purdue is no longer last in the conference in passing TDs allowed. But it’s just temporary. Here comes Notre Dame, and Michigan State plays Illinois this week.

NORTHWESTERN @ PENN STATE

There’s a real easy joke here, but I’ve got too much class to make it.

Next week:

• Indiana @ Illinois: Only $14.95 on pay-per-view
• Purdue @ Iowa: Somebody gets to rebound in this one
• Michigan State @ Michigan: Since Sparty can’t win, obviously they will
• Penn State @ Minnesota: Another sop to the BWI crowd
• Bowling Green @ Ohio State: Oh, you have got to be kidding me
• Northwestern @ Wisconsin: NU has done very well against Bucky lately