PALE, RESTED AND READY: THE PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN SEASON PREVIEW

Once again, the smell of pigskin is in the air, with a couple of leaves starting to go yellow here in Wisconsin (the state where summer is a long weekend), so it’s time for a slightly young man’s fancy to turn severely to thoughts of football.

And, once again, my customary flippancy must be tempered by sadness. For the second year in a row, a Big Ten coach has passed away during the off-season. Indiana’s Terry Hoeppner passed away in June, succumbing to the brain cancer that kept him off the IU sidelines for part of last season. Bill Lynch, the former Ball State head coach, takes over at least for now.

So, we leave the snark behind until . . . wait for it . . . NOW.

IN REVIEW: THE POSTSEASON NEVER HAPPENED

In what has to be a first, not a single Big Ten team played in a bowl game following the 2006 season. Shut up. You know it’s true.

THE COACHING SITUATION IS ALWAYS IN FLUX

Bill Lynch, as previously mentioned, takes over at Indiana. This means that in a few years he’s moved from the fourth-best coaching job in Indiana to the third-best.

Michigan State finally discovered “John L. Smith” was just Lou Tepper under an assumed name, so he got the gate, and Cincinnati’s Mark Dantonio takes over, becoming the latest pigskin psychologist to try to manage Sparty’s bipolarity.

Minnesota finally realized Glen Mason was never going to crack seven wins, so he too is gone, replaced by Tim Brewster, who I’m sure somebody out there has heard of.

But enough about that. The real question is, who’s in trouble if they don’t make something happen this year? That’s probably a very short list, starting with “Ron” and ending with “Zook.” Sure, some other coaches will feel some heat–even the exalted ground beneath Kirk Ferentz’s feet is looking a little shaky these days. But I think, barring a major letdown by somebody else, Zook is the only coach who might be doomed without a big improvement. SEGUE!

ILLINOIS: FLIP THIS HOUSE

Yup, the Zooker had better flip one house, or he’ll have to flip another. (Sorry. In the offseason the TV is permatuned to HGTV. Not my idea, but I got outvoted, 1-1.) Now, far be it from me to brag, but it seems to me that I wrote this two seasons ago:

As already mentioned, Ron Zook takes over for The Brother Of Norv. We already know that he and Larry Eustachy have independently arrived at the conclusion that nothing good ever comes of middle-aged coaches going anywhere near a frat house after midnight. We also know that, if that wasn’t the reason he got whacked at Florida, his firing was probably unfair. He did OK with Spurrier’s players, and proved himself to be a good recruiter. (You’ll know this for certain this year or next, when Urban Meyer plays for a national title with Zook’s players.) So Indigenous Woodlands People fans have good reason to be optimistic.

As usual, ignore me at your own peril. There still isn’t anybody arguing with Zook’s ability to recruit. If anything his reputation has improved, since he’s still getting great classes and now he’s getting them at Illinois. But since he has the hands-down most-frightening player in the conference (QB Isiah ‘Juice’ Williams), he’d better show some improvement in his third season. Everybody knows he inherited a team with less athletic talent than the marching band which took the field at halftime. But that’s no longer true. And the skips on this year’s schedule are Michigan State and Purdue. So the Illini had better start fast and speed up. Ending Missouri’s dark-horse run in the season opener would be a Very Good Thing.

INDIANA: [blank]

What CAN you say, really? This season looked SO promising, as the Hoosiers finally started to get traction midway through last season, only narrowly missing their first bowl game since 1993. But that’s over now. The mood of the season switches from anticipation to survival, though just as with Northwestern last year it would be unwise to curse this team with lowered expectations. Still, sigh. At least they don’t have to play Michigan or Ohio State. If their offense can rally and pull the team together, they have a shot at a bowl. But it won’t be easy, and they may not come out of the non-conference season unscathed.

IOWA: FERENTZ TAKES A MULLIGAN

It’s a fine line between “fierce competitor” and “liability,” and if Iowa fans weren’t sure which side of that line QB Drew Tate was on last season, they’re probably not alone. Tate went from Heisman candidate to benched.

For a guy like Kirk Ferentz who has made a career by making somebodies out of nobodies, now he faces a different problem: taking somebodies and keeping them somebodies. The Hawks are getting a better class of recruit these days, but that isn’t making it any easier to keep winning. Obviously.

Like Indiana, the Hawks skip Michigan and Ohio State this season, and their non-conference schedule looks easy. But unless QB Jake Christensen gets in the groove early, the first three games could be disastrous. Northern Illinois isn’t the MACrifice they once were, Syracuse nearly got the Hawks last season, and Iowa State has a shiny new golden-boy coach. Hawk fans should be prepared for any number of wins between 4 and 10 . . . it’s just too hard to call.

MICHIGAN: THE SEASON IS UNNECESSARY, THE WOLVERINES HAVE ALREADY WON

Or at least that seems to be the consensus. Hard to argue with it too, since Lloyd Carr’s team returns more quality talent than anyone else in the conference.

If there is a question, and I’m not saying there is, the question will be how the Wolverines can survive being the clear frontrunner in the conference, a position they have not been in for several years. This season it doesn’t even look like they’ll be fighting with Ohio State for conference dominance–Wisconsin looks like the clear #2 team in the Big Ten this season. But with a non-conference schedule that includes Appalachian State and (shudder) Eastern Michigan, the Wolverines will be to seven wins before you know. Even without Indiana and Iowa on the schedule.

MICHIGAN STATE: MEET THE NEW BOSS

Probably not the same as the old boss. Probably. With Drew Stanton gone and a quirky defense returning, trying to adjust to a new coaching staff, it’s very easy to look askance at Sparty’s hopes for ‘07. But Dantonio has engineered quarterbacks before, and his ‘crack the whip’ style might accidentally cause the Spartans to start playing smart football. That alone would justify the coaching change. No Illinois or Purdue games this season.

MINNESOTA: THERE ISN’T A GOOD HEADLINE HERE EITHER

You know why.

Enter Tim Brewster (who?), tight ends coach for the Denver Broncos, taking over just as the university begins serious work on its forthcoming on-campus football stadium. Can Brewster generate some excitement in a town not notorious for loving Gopher football? Can he at least continue Glen Mason’s tradition of making it to fifth-tier bowl games? Especially given all the talent he’ll have to replace? Again, pretty hard to predict. It would help if he could beat North Dakota State by more than one point.

NORTHWESTERN: FIND ANOTHER WAY

If last season was a writeoff, this season can’t be. Randy Walker had made Northwestern into a solid mid-pack Big Ten team prior to his death last offseason. Pat Fitzgerald didn’t have enough time to get the Wildcats’ house back in order last year, so if it turned out an underwhelming season, who can really be upset? This year, though, there can’t be as many excuses. Last season’s team was green, this season’s is more experienced. Same goes for the coach. But maybe NU can rattle off three straight to start the year (Northeastern, Nevada, Duke), which might start the Purple Passion going. No Penn State or Wisconsin games this season.

OHIO STATE: NOT RELOADING, REBUILDING

Sorry, Bucknuts, but it’s true. After stinking it up in the national title game and watching almost every name player take off, the proper term to follow “re-” is “build.” As in, it ain’t gonna be like last year. True, an untested Buckeye is probably still a pretty good player, and Jim Tressel can coach a team up to potential, but still, #3 in the conference. MAYBE #2 if Wisconsin’s success from last season turns out to be more a gift from the scheduling gods than the result of anything Bret Bielema did. But not #1. Not this year. So join the rest of us who just watch the games because they’re fun. But you won’t watch Iowa or Indiana games this season.

PENN STATE: NO, HE’S NOT

Retiring. We bring it up every year for no good reason. Only God knows when Paterno will hang it up, and you know what I’m implying.

It was a pretty not-too-bad season last season for the Nits, spoiled only by some ugly non-football stuff. If any coach can smooth those troubled waters, it’s JoePa, particularly if he can rattle off a nice string of victories to start the season. Game #2 is Notre Dame, though, and even if they’re coming to Happy Valley, that’s no gimme. Look, no Minnesota or Northwestern! Uh, that may not be a good thing.

PURDUE: TIMING IS EVERYTHING

And Joe Tiller picked an excellent time to have a pretty good season last year–I thought he was a goner. Look for more basketball-on-grass from Pete’s offense this year, and maybe the defense will stiffen up too. And maybe some year I’ll actually care enough about Purdue football to bother researching them a little bit.

WISCONSIN: LUCKY, GOOD, OR BOTH?

Everyone should have a first year on the job like Bret Bielema. Even though Barry Alvarez’s shadow is only slightly smaller than Vince Lombardi’s in Wisconsin, he managed to make his case with a 12-1 season that far surpassed anyone’s expectations.

But that was last year.

Now what?

John Stocco is gone, but then again, Bielema only has to replace John Stocco. Tyler Donovan has enough game experience to give the Badger freaks a little breathing room. The defense promises to be just as good as last year’s squad. But let’s face it, Wisconsin got a HUGE boost from the schedule gods last year, not having to face Michigan and Ohio State, neither of which they would’ve beaten (in all likelihood). They’re both back on the schedule, while Purdue and Michigan State rotate off. Making another bowl game shouldn’t be a problem, but reliving last year’s success might be tougher. We’ll just have to see what Bielema and his Badgers are made of.

SPOILER ALERT!!

Since I’m never wrong about these things, you might as well take this to the bank.

1. Michigan
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Iowa
6. Indiana
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. Michigan State
10. Northwestern
11. Minnesota