PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.03

Okay. How much can you really tell about the Big Ten after two weeks? That it’s a down year for the conference is pretty much a given. The rot goes much deeper than the obvious dead wolverine under the porch. Wisconsin, a more-or-less-consensus top 10 team, nearly didn’t beat UNLV, Ohio State (which is absolutely not in a rebuilding mode!) put up 20 points on Akron, which is about what I expected them to score in the first quarter, and thus far nobody from the pack has stepped up and said, “Excuse me. Right here. RIGHT. HERE.”

One team has, in my estimation, overachieved twice: Michigan State. Once by pummeling a UAB team that wound up giving Florida State all it wanted (not that FSU is FSU any more, but still) and once by keeping Bowling Green’s exuberant offense in check. I’ve been mildly impressed by Indiana through two games as well. The Hoosiers have shown they can hold a lead (albeit barely), something previous IU football teams could not do, except against Iowa, dagnabit. And Northwestern did come back to win their game against Nevada next week. So there’s three teams overachieving right at the moment.

None of this is to say that any of those three are a threat to win the conference. Sure, it could happen, if Ohio State’s defense undergoes a significant collapse against any of the three. But I wouldn’t predict that; would you?

Then there’s Purdue. Through two games they’ve scored more than 100 points and they’re likely to break the half-century mark again this week. But those two wins were against a distracted Toledo team and a I-AA also-ran in Eastern Illinois . . . they merely did what they should have done against those two teams.

As for the rest of the conference? Sorry, not enough evidence. Illinois may be better but may not be better enough, which is why I can confidently say . . .

ILLINOIS @ SYRACUSE

. . . if either team wins this game, it’ll be a miracle.

AKRON @ INDIANA

You know it’s a strange year for the conference when you can honestly say that Indiana has a better offense than Ohio State, and nobody can argue with you.

IOWA @ IOWA STATE

From the outside this looks like an epic mismatch, as a team with a smothering defense (Iowa has yet to give up a touchdown in any phase of the game) takes on a team with a doddering, spastic offense the week after the former team pitched a dominating shutout and the latter team lost to a I-AA directional school. But Iowa’s wins are over Northern Illinois and Syracuse, not exactly two fearsome opponents. Then again, some people would argue that Iowa State is even worse than NIU and the ‘Cuse.

I can’t help but think that this is all part of some brilliant plan by Gene Chizik. He knew that losing to a MAC team and a I-AA school would be forgotten if only the Clones could beat Iowa . . . so he tanked those games and kept Todd Blythe relatively quiet so as to lull the Hawkeyes into a false sense of security. Then I snap to my senses and realize that any plan which involves losing to Kent State and Northern Iowa cannot, by definition, be termed “brilliant.”

Syracuse tried to stop Iowa by stuffing 8 in the box and daring their inexperienced QB to beat them. He did. Gene Chizik knows more about defense than anybody on Syracuse’s staff, to be sure, so I am not looking for Jake Christensen to have a huge day. But in the end, good triumphs over evil. After all, evil passed on Brian Kelly, and what has he done lately?

NOTRE DAME @ MICHIGAN

Admit it–this is the Notre Dame/Michigan game you’ve always wanted to see. One where the teams weren’t playing to establish which was the most legendary legend in all legendry, but one where the loser would be in serious danger of not going to a bowl game. Or even (gasp!) HAVING A LOSING SEASON.

But when you run off to join the Grave Dancers Union, make sure you point out that you’ll be dancing on ND’s grave, because they have got nothing on offense, just some spiky-hairded quarterback who has yet to do anything.

PITT @ MICHIGAN STATE

Only a fool predicts that any trend involving Sparty will continue for more than two weeks at best. But the evidence is there that MSU is more disciplined and stouter on defense than they were under “John L. Smith.” Of course, they’d pretty much have to be. Pitt is banged up severely and lost a top-flight defensive lineman this week, which is never good news when you’re facing a team with two good running backs. Unless that team is Minnesota. Which it isn’t, in this case.

MINNESOTA @ FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Florida Atlantic = NOT the school Penn State brutalized in week 1. This is the one that has Howard Schnellenberger as coach. The Owls are supposed to be pretty good for a Sun Belt team. Conventional wisdom says that even a bad Big Ten team can beat a pretty good Sun Belt team, even at the other team’s stadium. Coach *mumble* turned up the heat in the Gophers’ practice facility this week to get his squad ready for this game. Yeah, but it’s a dry heat. Ain’t no dry heat in Florida.

I really want to say that FAU pulls off the upset but I’m drinking the “Big Ten linemen = better than anybody else” Kool-Aid.

(Three overtimes, natch.)

DUKE @ NORTHWESTERN

There are so many easy and obvious jokes here I’ll just let you fill them in yourself.

OHIO STATE @ WASHINGTON

Like I said last week, TRAP GAME!

Okay, not really. So far Ohio State’s defense has absolutely shut down . . . Youngstown State and Akron. Guuhhhh. Whereas Washington has already ended Boise State’s season for all practical purposes. And have you SEEN that OSU offense? No, you haven’t. Nobody has! It’s sad to say, but 2 of the Big Ten’s ranked teams have an air of fraudulence about them, like they’re just waiting to be exposed. Who better to pants the Bucks than the Huskies, in their stadium?

BUFFALO @ PENN STATE

The Bulls got a rare and much-needed victory last week, absolutely plucking the Temple Owls, 42-7. A trip to Happy Valley is just what they need to keep them from getting all uppity now.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ PURDUE

No, this is not a basketball prediction. But with all these points being scored, the game might last until basketball season.

THE CITADEL @ WISCONSIN

Wisconsin nearly gacked against UNLV last week, as you know. The Citadel really took it to Webber International, which might be a college and might be a human resources firm, I can’t tell.

Next week:

• Illinois @ Indiana: Formerly a push, now pretty much a foregone conclusion
• Penn State @ Michigan: Somebody’s season REALLY ends here
• Purdue @ Minnesota: Making Purdue AGAIN the most fraudulent 4-0 team in the country
• Michigan State @ Notre Dame: This will not be pretty
• Northwestern @ Ohio State: Creepy ninja football beats Michigan, not OSU
• Iowa @ Wisconsin: Indecent exposure