PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.05

So one week has gone by in the conference season now and we have learned–what? Oh, right, we haven’t learned anything we didn’t already know, apart from the fact that Penn State’s early success was more than a little illusory.

This week, however, is a better sorting-out week than most people probably think. There are a couple contests that may wind up having a huge influence over who will be up at the top with Ohio State and Michigan at the end of the conference season, and a couple more contests which may not look compelling now, but almost certainly will have a lot to do with who winds up in what bowl games at the end of the season. So let’s just take a

*crunch* OWWWWowowowowowowowow . . . owww . . . OW!

Sorry. I was just thinking about Iowa’s wide-receiver situation, and I tore my ACL. Can I bum some Advil from somebody?

PENN STATE @ ILLINOIS

Speaking of a game with massive sorting implications, here’s one. Penn State got exposed last week by Michigan (who appear to be well on their way back, but that’s another preview) while Illinois put together what I think might be their first good defensive performance in the nine seasons I’ve been writing this here column. The Illini flummoxed a not-that-bad Indiana squad by forcing the Hoosiers’ mobile QB to throw the ball, which he did not do very well. The Hoosiers ran for only 134 yards, and totally failed to stop the Illini runners. Well, guess what might be the best possible game plan to beat the Nits? Force AJ Morelli to throw the ball. Just the thought of that is enough to make Penn State fans disgorge their breakfasts.

Hey . . . there’s some neat symmetry here for football fans in Illinois! Not only did the Bears finally bench Rex Grossman, but now, here comes a PSU team that looks an awful lot like the Chicago Bears!

First team to 14 points wins this game. Penn State may have a good defense, but they have exactly ZERO offensive playmakers, and Illinois has several. Much as it’ll bug Orson and Stranko, Zook, I think, will take the Illini to a bowl this year. I can’t believe I just wrote that.

INDIANA @ IOWA

Like I mentioned in previous POTBTs, this is the game where Iowa fell apart last season, leaving the middle of the field and the underneath route wide open all day long while Kellen Lewis and James Hardy simply picked their bones clean. It’s safe to guess that Iowa has spent the week studying film from last week’s Illinois game, and it’s safe to guess that Iowa’s front seven can stuff the run better than Illinois’ can. The real questions are (1) Can the Iowa defense find a way to cover the underneath routes that killed them last year, and (2) can the offense score more than 14 points against a team with a pulse?

Much is made of the Hawks’ numerous injuries at wideout but the cupboard isn’t bare–James Cleveland is serviceable, Colin Sandeman was about the only bright spot in the Iowa offense against Iowa State, and wherever Derrell Johnson-Koulianos lines up, he’s a threat. Add the reality that Iowa played an intense, emotional game against Wisconsin last week after looking so flat the week before, and don’t forget the revenge factor and . . . oh, who am I trying to kid? The Hawks haven’t covered the middle of the field since Bob Sanders left town. Why on earth would anybody think they’d start this week?

OHIO STATE @ MINNESOTA

Which is softer: Ohio State’s non-conference schedule, or Ohio State’s conference schedule? Northwestern and Minnesota back-to-back? Feh.

MICHIGAN @ NORTHWESTERN

Michigan = getting better. Northwestern = not.

NOTRE DAME @ PURDUE

The best of all possible cures for the Irish’s offensive woes: a team that doesn’t play defense. Unfortunately, Purdue doesn’t play defense because Purdue doesn’t have to play defense. Unfortch, the Boilers have lost their top running back. A pity. The best way to beat the Irish is to run the ball, but maybe now ND fans can find out if their secondary is bad too.

MICHIGAN STATE @ WISCONSIN

One of these teams is for real. One of them isn’t. My advice? Go with the team that has the pass rush. Uh, that would be Sparty, who is really starting to give me fits. I keep thinking they’re going to win, which normally means that they should lose, but they haven’t yet. Thus I’m merely being set up for some spectacular failure in a later week. Or maybe this week. Who knows?

Next week:

• Wisconsin @ Illinois: Game delayed 45 minutes because the Badgers’ bus got pulled over for speeding south of Rockford
• Minnesota @ Indiana: A must-win for both teams, but for entirely different reasons
• Eastern Michigan @ Michigan: Disgusting
• Northwestern @ Michigan State: Wait, no, THIS is the one Sparty will lose
• Iowa @ Penn State: Will make the ‘04 game look like Hawaii/Texas Tech
• Ohio State @ Purdue: Hope you enjoyed being undefeated, Pete