MOVING UP!

Henceforth, Pickin’ on the Big Ten has a new home at AOL’s Fanhouse. First installment is up. See you over there.

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, SPECIAL ZEN EDITION

Normally there’s a clever introduction here, and a lot of thoughtful, snarky analysis that goes into each pick. But it’s been a week for major Real Life Intrusions, and today is my middle daughter’s third birthday, so instead you’re getting a bunch of pseudo-profound one-liners. And they said a degree in philosophy would never be useful for anything!

MICHIGAN @ ILLINOIS

Success before failure is always illusory; success after failure is the ultimate reality.

PENN STATE @ INDIANA

In a meeting of two equals, things are never equal.

NORTH DAKOTA STATE @ MINNESOTA

A mouse can bring down a giant, but the mouse must be crafty and the giant must be dull.

NORTHWESTERN @ EASTERN MICHIGAN

If there is nothing to say, say nothing.

MICHIGAN STATE @ OHIO STATE

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results.

IOWA @ PURDUE

What happens when a movable force meets a resistible object?

NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ WISCONSIN

Two things are certain: You are here and it is now.

Next week:

• Ball State @ Illinois: Trap game!
• Michigan State @ Iowa: Hawks have no chance against Sparty’s pass rush
• Minnesota @ Michigan: Goldy could keep it interesting
• Ohio State @ Penn State: The Nits, on the other hand . . .
• Northwestern @ Purdue: Take the over, whatever it is
• Indiana @ Wisconsin: These two teams do not match up well against each other

NEBRASKA DROPS THE AXE

Not on Bill Callahan . . . but on athletic director Steve Pederson, who has been fired, according to Brian Christopherson of the Lincoln Journal Star.

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.07

It’s hard to believe I still care about this. It’s hard to believe I’m still writing this column. I watched the Iowa/Penn State game in its entirety on Saturday, and yet here I am, still interested (or at least pretending to be interested) in Big Ten football.

I really need a new hobby, one that doesn’t rip my heart out quite so often or quite so spectacularly.

But, press on we must. It’s taken me ten seasons to build up my cadre of nine loyal readers. Can’t disappoint you now!

ILLINOIS @ IOWA

The reputation swap is now complete; the mantle of Genius rolled down I-80 to Davenport, then slipped undetected all the way across Illinois on I-74 to Champaign. Illinois has most of what you need to win in the Big Ten: a playmaking offensive back (actually, two of them), a dominating middle linebacker, just enough of a defensive secondary, and solid play on both sides of the line. Iowa is short a couple of those things. Really, what’s amazing is how quickly Iowa’s offensive line has gone from class-of-the-conference to execrable. Part of that may be due to inexperience, but as they point out over at Black Heart Gold Pants, there may be another reason:

In regards to the “fire O’Keefe or fire Ferentz” nonsense, Reese Morgan is probably a bigger sideline liability than KOK. At least O’Keefe was doing his job well when things were going well. Reese Morgan’s been with Iowa for 8 years, but after three solid years as recruiting coordinator and coaching tight ends (see Clark, Dallas), he moved to coaching the offensive line after the 2002 season, when Joe Philbin left. It seems now that this team misses Philbin (now the offensive coordinator for the 4-1 Green Bay Packers) more than we ever would have imagined. It certainly seems likely that he was every bit as responsible for the development and sustained success of the offensive line as S&C coach Chris Doyle was. [. . .] Look, Reese Morgan is a good guy, and he was a great tight end coach. Dallas Clark’s an obvious example, but Erik Jensen and Ryan Majerus were bona fide starters themselves. How easy it was to have tackles with receiver-eligible jerseys on the ends, taking up linebackers’ play action responsibilities on third and short.

But that’s not Morgan’s job anymore. Offensive line coach is, and the line’s been offensive in a different way for a couple years now. Worse, it doesn’t look like it’s getting any better, and that matters a whole lot more to the future success of the football team than any stylistic concerns we’ve got about play-calling or “using the whole field.”

BHGP aren’t the only folks who have noticed a change in Iowa football–so has former Hawkeye QB Drew Tate, currently freezing his foofoo in Saskatchewan:

“You can say all you want about scheme. I won’t get into that with my opinion,” said Tate, who tossed 18 touchdowns last year. “But it just seems, once we got into the second half of the season, every time we played somebody, (expletive), they knew everything we were going to run. They covered up everything. And throw on top of that young receivers that don’t know what’s going on, and I was hurt all last year … I think this year is kind of the same. You’ve got injuries and new guys and the schemes - the schemes are Iowa football.”

Read between the lines, which isn’t hard to do: It’s the schemes. I apologize to Drew Tate for implying that he was a bit of a loon last season. It’s obvious now that he played the way he did so that there would be at least one person on the offense who acted like he cared what happened in the game.

Speaking of the game, well, Iowa’s only hope will be to shut down Illinois’ not-quite-a-spread option attack. On offense they’ll need every last flake of Kinnick Stadium magic just to have a chance. But this team hasn’t scored more than 20 points on anybody but Syracuse all year. Why think they’ll start now? Illini roar to 6-1, but Florida fans know that’s just a wayside on the road to 7-5.

PURDUE @ MICHIGAN

Okay, Purdue came crashing back to earth last week, nearly getting stuffed by tOSU. That’s what October is for: crushing Pete’s delusions of greatness. Now comes a matchup against a Michigan team that didn’t exactly please too many of its fans in last week’s closer-than-it-needed-to-be smashup with Eastern Washtenaw County Michigan. The Wolverine defense just isn’t good. There, I said it. Purdue: spread option. Two words Blue fans would just as soon not hear again this season. Michigan isn’t as bad as everybody thought they were, but Purdue isn’t as bad as they looked last week. Except on defense. There they are that bad. But in a shootout between Michigan and Purdue–and the way these two teams defend, it’s gonna be a shootout–who do you go with? I’ll go with Pete. Gadzooks. The things I have to say this year!

INDIANA @ MICHIGAN STATE

It should be illegal to have to play Indiana and Northwestern in consecutive weeks. It’s the sort of thing that can drive fans of mid-pack Big Ten teams to spend the whole weekend in the basement playing Halo 3.

Has Mark Dantonio finally got Sparty on the right meds? You’ll know in this game. And you’ll know the answer is ‘no’ since IU runs the spread even better than Northwestern does, and Sparty didn’t have an answer for the spread last week.

MINNESOTA @ NORTHWESTERN

You saw what CJ Bacher did to MSU last week. Sparty plays defense. Goldy doesn’t.

KENT STATE @ OHIO STATE

Yup . . . I love me this twelve-game schedule.

WISCONSIN @ PENN STATE

If there’s a watchable game in the Big Ten this week–and I’m not saying there is–this is it. Penn State fans can breathe again, a common aftereffect of playing Iowa lately. Wisconsin needs to regroup following last week’s game when they got schooled by Illinois. But Wisconsin is a tremendously better team than Iowa was last week, mostly since the Badgers have only lost one wide receiver, not thirty-eight of them. This will be classic, grind-’em-out Big Ten football. If you’re in to that sort of thing. In the end, Wisconsin prevails, if only because they have more playmakers on offense. Meaning they have one.

Next week:

• Michigan @ Illinois: Potential seismic implications in this game
• Penn State @ Indiana: These two go together like Twix bars and Sriracha sauce
• North Dakota State @ Minnesota: WHY didn’t Minnesota hire Craig Bohl?
• Northwestern @ Eastern Michigan: The Eagles should just join the Big Ten and get it over with
• Michigan State @ Ohio State: If Sparty is still Sparty, they’ll win this game
• Iowa @ Purdue: Hawks’ last chance to score 20 points before the Minnesota game
• Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin: Playing for the pride of the I-39 corridor

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.06

For the most part, I don’t wanna talk about it. You know, football. Sure, it’s my favorite sport–I mean, pretty much the ONLY sport I follow–but honestly, I’m about ready to sign up for those treatments Jim Carrey got in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind: I don’t care if I have to forget everything as long as I don’t have to remember . . .

I said last week would be an important one in terms of sorting out the conference. It was. It showed that, basically, this year, it’s the Big One. I have Ohio State #2 in my Blogpoll ballot this week, based on the fact that they haven’t played a truly stinky game this year, and their win in Seattle was more impressive than U$C’s. Of course, it’s fair to say that the rest of the Bucks’ schedule is unimpressive (Youngstown State, Akron, Minnesota, Northwestern), but I think that stacks up as the rough equivalent of Idaho, Nebraska, and Washington State. Minnesota has a better offense than Nebraska, after all.

As for the rest of the conference, it’s a wash. It’s a tossup. It’s not even worth considering. Everybody else looks incredibly mortal, and everybody’s just waiting for the cover to get blown.

Speaking of blown coverage, have I mentioned that right now I kinda sorta wish I could forget about football?

WISCONSIN @ ILLINOIS

No team benefited more from last week’s nationwide football crisis than Wisconsin, who once again did just enough to win a game and found themselves #5 in the country, even though I think everybody would feel a whole lot better if they were #13 or so. Thus it behooves the Badgers to lose this game so they no longer need be overrated. And make no mistake, this is a very losable game for Wisky. The match of Illinois and Ron Zook may have taken a while to come to fruition, but why do I have a sneaking feeling that the rest of the conference is going to start looking at the Illini the way gardeners look at zucchini?

MINNESOTA @ INDIANA

Look, everybody knows the Gophers are not a great football team right now. They’re still mistake-prone, and they’ve yet to learn that the defensive backfield must provide, y’know, defense. Comes now the Indiana Hoosiers and their barn-fire offense, not exactly what the Gophers need to see. A win here makes Indiana’s first bowl berth since 1993 practically a layup. Which is always a good term to use when you’re talking about basketball schools . . .

EASTERN MICHIGAN @ MICHIGAN

I’d like to say they can’t, but you know that Anything Is Possible This Year In College Football. Therefore, I must briefly consider the possibility that the Wolverines might lose to a directional school located about 10 miles from its campus.

considerconsiderconsiderconsider . . .

No. The Eagles defense is giving up close to 400 yards a game, and the best team they’ve played so far is either Vanderbilt or Ball State.

NORTHWESTERN @ MICHIGAN STATE

It’s hard to imagine a defining game just six games into Mark Dantonio’s tenure in East Lansing, but here it is. If he wants to forver exorcise Sparty’s mental demons, his team needs to come out strong against the Wildcats and their creepy brand of ninja football™. This is exactly the sort of game Sparty usually lost under both Bobby Williams and John L. Smith: a hanging curveball against a clearly inferior opponent the week after a heartbreaking loss to a good team. I expect Dantonio to bring all kinds of heat against a not-that-bad Northwestern offense, then run the ball right up the middle all day long. It’s a battle between MSU and Illinois for the title of Most Improved Team in the Big Ten; expect this game to make Sparty’s case.

IOWA @ PENN STATE

If this game were a movie, it would have been made in 1988 and it would have starred Wings Hauser and Yaphet Kotto as two cops who can’t stand each other but have to work together to solve a case that has great personal meaning to both of them. Moreover, it would be airing on Starz! at 3:15 on a Wednesday morning, you’d be able to finish every line of dialog before the actors could, and you’d watch about six minutes of it before turning over to The Weather Channel.

(N.b.: Wings Hauser and Yaphet Kotto did, in fact, appear together in a 1987 Perry Mason TV movie.)

OHIO STATE @ PURDUE

Purdue has been putting up arenaball numbers all season. They have yet to face a defense ranked in the top 100 nationally.

Ohio State is a top 2 defense.

Purdue, on the other hand, has the tenth-best defense . . . in the Big Ten. Crikey, they gave up 19 points to Notre Dame!

Next week:

• Illinois @ Iowa: There’s a new I-school genius now
• Purdue @ Michigan: This one will be extremely ugly
• Indiana @ Michigan State: With a possible trip to San Antonio on the line
• Minnesota @ Northwestern: Win now, or watch it all slip away
• Kent State @ Ohio State: Why?
• Wisconsin @ Penn State: Age and experience can’t always beat youth and treachery

WON’T YOU PLEASE HELP OUT?

I need your help, people. I’m taking up a collection. I need to raise $30, and I need to raise it TODAY.

Why?

Because I want to buy a VCR and send it to Kirk Ferentz. It is sad, just beyond sad, that a fine university like the University of Iowa must suffer because its football program lacks a VCR for watching game tape. Won’t you please help me right this most regrettable wrong? For less than the price of three large pizzas, we can help ensure that the Hawkeye football program will finally be able to review their past mistakes and maybe, just maybe, avoid repeating them over and over again. And again. And again.

Please, won’t you think of the childrenyoung adults?

THIS IS ABOUT THE POINT . . .

. . . where, when I was younger, I would switch off the Hawkeyes and turn on PBS to watch the white guy with the Afro who painted “happy little trees.”

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.05

So one week has gone by in the conference season now and we have learned–what? Oh, right, we haven’t learned anything we didn’t already know, apart from the fact that Penn State’s early success was more than a little illusory.

This week, however, is a better sorting-out week than most people probably think. There are a couple contests that may wind up having a huge influence over who will be up at the top with Ohio State and Michigan at the end of the conference season, and a couple more contests which may not look compelling now, but almost certainly will have a lot to do with who winds up in what bowl games at the end of the season. So let’s just take a

*crunch* OWWWWowowowowowowowow . . . owww . . . OW!

Sorry. I was just thinking about Iowa’s wide-receiver situation, and I tore my ACL. Can I bum some Advil from somebody?

PENN STATE @ ILLINOIS

Speaking of a game with massive sorting implications, here’s one. Penn State got exposed last week by Michigan (who appear to be well on their way back, but that’s another preview) while Illinois put together what I think might be their first good defensive performance in the nine seasons I’ve been writing this here column. The Illini flummoxed a not-that-bad Indiana squad by forcing the Hoosiers’ mobile QB to throw the ball, which he did not do very well. The Hoosiers ran for only 134 yards, and totally failed to stop the Illini runners. Well, guess what might be the best possible game plan to beat the Nits? Force AJ Morelli to throw the ball. Just the thought of that is enough to make Penn State fans disgorge their breakfasts.

Hey . . . there’s some neat symmetry here for football fans in Illinois! Not only did the Bears finally bench Rex Grossman, but now, here comes a PSU team that looks an awful lot like the Chicago Bears!

First team to 14 points wins this game. Penn State may have a good defense, but they have exactly ZERO offensive playmakers, and Illinois has several. Much as it’ll bug Orson and Stranko, Zook, I think, will take the Illini to a bowl this year. I can’t believe I just wrote that.

INDIANA @ IOWA

Like I mentioned in previous POTBTs, this is the game where Iowa fell apart last season, leaving the middle of the field and the underneath route wide open all day long while Kellen Lewis and James Hardy simply picked their bones clean. It’s safe to guess that Iowa has spent the week studying film from last week’s Illinois game, and it’s safe to guess that Iowa’s front seven can stuff the run better than Illinois’ can. The real questions are (1) Can the Iowa defense find a way to cover the underneath routes that killed them last year, and (2) can the offense score more than 14 points against a team with a pulse?

Much is made of the Hawks’ numerous injuries at wideout but the cupboard isn’t bare–James Cleveland is serviceable, Colin Sandeman was about the only bright spot in the Iowa offense against Iowa State, and wherever Derrell Johnson-Koulianos lines up, he’s a threat. Add the reality that Iowa played an intense, emotional game against Wisconsin last week after looking so flat the week before, and don’t forget the revenge factor and . . . oh, who am I trying to kid? The Hawks haven’t covered the middle of the field since Bob Sanders left town. Why on earth would anybody think they’d start this week?

OHIO STATE @ MINNESOTA

Which is softer: Ohio State’s non-conference schedule, or Ohio State’s conference schedule? Northwestern and Minnesota back-to-back? Feh.

MICHIGAN @ NORTHWESTERN

Michigan = getting better. Northwestern = not.

NOTRE DAME @ PURDUE

The best of all possible cures for the Irish’s offensive woes: a team that doesn’t play defense. Unfortunately, Purdue doesn’t play defense because Purdue doesn’t have to play defense. Unfortch, the Boilers have lost their top running back. A pity. The best way to beat the Irish is to run the ball, but maybe now ND fans can find out if their secondary is bad too.

MICHIGAN STATE @ WISCONSIN

One of these teams is for real. One of them isn’t. My advice? Go with the team that has the pass rush. Uh, that would be Sparty, who is really starting to give me fits. I keep thinking they’re going to win, which normally means that they should lose, but they haven’t yet. Thus I’m merely being set up for some spectacular failure in a later week. Or maybe this week. Who knows?

Next week:

• Wisconsin @ Illinois: Game delayed 45 minutes because the Badgers’ bus got pulled over for speeding south of Rockford
• Minnesota @ Indiana: A must-win for both teams, but for entirely different reasons
• Eastern Michigan @ Michigan: Disgusting
• Northwestern @ Michigan State: Wait, no, THIS is the one Sparty will lose
• Iowa @ Penn State: Will make the ‘04 game look like Hawaii/Texas Tech
• Ohio State @ Purdue: Hope you enjoyed being undefeated, Pete

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.04

Editor’s note: Mark Hasty is on one of his all-too-frequent Hawkeye-induced “vacations.” We had to go to great lengths to find a guest columnist for this week, but as you’ll see, we succeeded. We found a man who needs no introduction, mostly because he always gives himself one . . .

“This is Howard Cosell, and I realize that my appearance in this space may cause considerable consternation among those of you who believed me to be deceased. Let me assure you that I am. Yet not even my sepulchral sequestration can blind me to the fact that the inaptly and ineptly named Big Ten Conference is nothing more than a bitter, tragic joke. Not only are their counting skills atrocious, but with the possible exceptions of the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions of Pennsylvania State University, no team in the conference can truly be called ‘big.’

“Nevertheless, since opportunities to express my opinion are scarce to come by in my present state of affairs, I am truly honored to pick this week’s games on behalf of the distinguished Mr. Hasty. May he get well soon, and may his exact whereabouts be determined quickly. Now, without further ado, let us turn our attention to the games.”

ILLINOIS @ INDIANA

“The fortunes of the Fighting Illini have fallen dramatically since the days of Harold ‘Red’ Grange and other of his ilk. It is always a tragedy when a once-storied program finds itself in a state of utter collapse. Yet a greater tragedy by far is when a talented and beloved coach passes from this life entirely too soon. Such is the case with the Hoosiers of Indiana University.

“Both these teams, to be quite frank, have overachieved thus far this season. The expectations of both programs were as low as they could be. But how often must the conventional wisdom be proved wrong before we all learn to question that to which everyone is quick to assent?

“These teams match up reasonably well, with Illinois’ rushing attack, Indiana’s unrelenting aerial assault, and neither team’s ability to play wonderful defense. Momentum in football always favors the home team, and I believe that oft-cited dictum will attend here.”

PENN STATE @ MICHIGAN

“Joseph Paterno has been coaching the Penn State Nittany Lions so long that I actually remember him. Though his teams have hit some misfortune both on and off the field in recent years, he has admirably answered the naysayers who regarded him as too old to coach the contemporary student-athlete.

“Meanwhile, the coaching skills of Lloyd Carr have been called into question, and not without some justification. The Wolverines simply have not played like a storied program, but rather like a school which ought to have a compass direction as part of its name.

“Though this game will be played in Michigan Stadium, site of many a legendary battle over the years, I believe that Michigan has already proven what it can do against a quality team. Nothing. Nothing whatsoever. Penn State shall be triumphant, and the calls for Carr’s immediate dismissal will grow ever more shrill.”

PURDUE @ MINNESOTA

“Speaking of tragedy, which we were previously, there is perhaps none more tragic than that which has befallen Minnesota football. It certainly is not the fault of their coach, Tim Brewster, who did not ask the university to fire Glen Mason, the most successful Gopher coach since Bernie Bierman himself. Yet now he finds himself with a team which, as it ever was, cannot defend the pass, at precisely the time that Joe Tiller brings his Air Force squadron to town. Games like this are why college football can never surpass the popularity of the NFL.”

MICHIGAN STATE @ NOTRE DAME

“Ask around the campus of the University of Notre Dame and they will tell you that responsibility for their current misfortune may be laid solely at the feet of one man: Tyrone Willingham, a man who has not been the coach at that storied institution for three seasons. He, they say, is the reason that Charlie Weis, late of the New England Patriots, is experiencing such turmoil in this, his third season.

“Ask again the extent to which Willingham’s own execrable third season was the fault of HIS immediate predecessor, Bob Davie, and you will be met with dull stares and silence.

“Nevertheless, one must be careful not to assume that the difference in attitude towards Weis and Willingham is racial in origin. If there is one thing Jack Roosevelt Robinson and the other pioneers of the black athlete have secured for their progeny, it is the right to be judged on their achievements or lack thereof. If the Fighting Irish wish to cut Weis some additional slack simply because they feel greater affection for the man, that is their prerogative. It is perhaps duplicitous, but it is their prerogative. As for this game, Michigan State shall simply slaughter the Irish, who are a horrible football team right now and are likely to remain such.”

NORTHWESTERN @ OHIO STATE

“I truly apologize, but some things are simply beneath the dignity of a journalist such as myself.”

IOWA @ WISCONSIN

“An interesting philosophical question, one which we all must ponder, is the following: Are my personal strengths stronger than my weakenesses are weak? That question is both relevant and germane to this football game because both of these teams appear to be fatally flawed. The Iowa Hawkeyes have been firm and unyielding on defense, yet to surrender a single touchdown, yet their offense has proven weak. Their opponents, the Badgers of the University of Wisconsin, are quite the opposite. They score points almost at will, yet they yield points almost at their opponent’s will.

“So, then, whose strength is stronger than their weakness is weak?

“Two factors force my hand in choosing this game. Football always favors the home team, all else being equal, which it seldom is, and the game favors the offense, since they are allowed to act, while the defense must react. Thus I must choose the Badgers in this game, a decisive victory for their young coach Bret Bielema, who played for and graduated from the university he must now oppose.”

Next week:

• Penn State @ Illinois: If the Illini are ‘back,’ they need this game
• Indiana @ Iowa: This was the point at which Iowa’s season fell apart last year
• Ohio State @ Minnesota: Look away, look FAR away
• Michigan @ Northwestern: So Michigan DOES play road games! Who knew?
• Notre Dame @ Purdue: Good news, Chuck: Purdue doesn’t play defense
• Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Battle for the Big Ten Dark Horse title

5 LEGITIMATE WORRIES ABOUT IOWA STATE

1. As good as the Jake Christensen-Tony Moeaki connection was last week, it’s too easy for the Clones to key on shutting down one guy, and who else is going to catch the ball? Besides, if there’s one area where ISU’s defense is not weak, it’s at linebacker. No way does Moeaki go for more than 100 yards against ISU.
2. Todd Blythe has been way too quiet. It’s highly unlikely that Bret Meyer has forgotten Blythe is on the team. Maybe he’s been coached to follow his progressions differently, but honestly, Blythe has just been creepily quiet.
3. While the performance of the defensive front has been nothing short of astonishing, look who it’s come against. And along those same lines, Southern Illinois got 34 points on NIU . . . Iowa got less than half that. Not that ISU has been burning up the field on offense, but again, look at who Iowa’s success has come against.
4. If I have a complaint against Ferentz’s teams (and I do), it’s the undisciplined way they play at times, drawing oodles and gobs of drive-extending (or drive-killing) penalties. Through two weeks, how are the Hawkeyes doing in avoiding penalties? They’ve drawn the third-most penalty yards in Division I-A.
5. And guess who is third from the BOTTOM of the penalty yard list? Iowa State. Say what you will about Chizik’s first two games, his players are avoiding penalties. They’re not avoiding mistakes (obviously), but they’re not making the sort of mental errors that lead to penalties. It would be very dangerous to assume that Iowa State will beat themselves tomorrow.