MOVING UP!

Henceforth, Pickin’ on the Big Ten has a new home at AOL’s Fanhouse. First installment is up. See you over there.

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, SPECIAL ZEN EDITION

Normally there’s a clever introduction here, and a lot of thoughtful, snarky analysis that goes into each pick. But it’s been a week for major Real Life Intrusions, and today is my middle daughter’s third birthday, so instead you’re getting a bunch of pseudo-profound one-liners. And they said a degree in philosophy would never be useful for anything!

MICHIGAN @ ILLINOIS

Success before failure is always illusory; success after failure is the ultimate reality.

PENN STATE @ INDIANA

In a meeting of two equals, things are never equal.

NORTH DAKOTA STATE @ MINNESOTA

A mouse can bring down a giant, but the mouse must be crafty and the giant must be dull.

NORTHWESTERN @ EASTERN MICHIGAN

If there is nothing to say, say nothing.

MICHIGAN STATE @ OHIO STATE

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results.

IOWA @ PURDUE

What happens when a movable force meets a resistible object?

NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ WISCONSIN

Two things are certain: You are here and it is now.

Next week:

• Ball State @ Illinois: Trap game!
• Michigan State @ Iowa: Hawks have no chance against Sparty’s pass rush
• Minnesota @ Michigan: Goldy could keep it interesting
• Ohio State @ Penn State: The Nits, on the other hand . . .
• Northwestern @ Purdue: Take the over, whatever it is
• Indiana @ Wisconsin: These two teams do not match up well against each other

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.07

It’s hard to believe I still care about this. It’s hard to believe I’m still writing this column. I watched the Iowa/Penn State game in its entirety on Saturday, and yet here I am, still interested (or at least pretending to be interested) in Big Ten football.

I really need a new hobby, one that doesn’t rip my heart out quite so often or quite so spectacularly.

But, press on we must. It’s taken me ten seasons to build up my cadre of nine loyal readers. Can’t disappoint you now!

ILLINOIS @ IOWA

The reputation swap is now complete; the mantle of Genius rolled down I-80 to Davenport, then slipped undetected all the way across Illinois on I-74 to Champaign. Illinois has most of what you need to win in the Big Ten: a playmaking offensive back (actually, two of them), a dominating middle linebacker, just enough of a defensive secondary, and solid play on both sides of the line. Iowa is short a couple of those things. Really, what’s amazing is how quickly Iowa’s offensive line has gone from class-of-the-conference to execrable. Part of that may be due to inexperience, but as they point out over at Black Heart Gold Pants, there may be another reason:

In regards to the “fire O’Keefe or fire Ferentz” nonsense, Reese Morgan is probably a bigger sideline liability than KOK. At least O’Keefe was doing his job well when things were going well. Reese Morgan’s been with Iowa for 8 years, but after three solid years as recruiting coordinator and coaching tight ends (see Clark, Dallas), he moved to coaching the offensive line after the 2002 season, when Joe Philbin left. It seems now that this team misses Philbin (now the offensive coordinator for the 4-1 Green Bay Packers) more than we ever would have imagined. It certainly seems likely that he was every bit as responsible for the development and sustained success of the offensive line as S&C coach Chris Doyle was. [. . .] Look, Reese Morgan is a good guy, and he was a great tight end coach. Dallas Clark’s an obvious example, but Erik Jensen and Ryan Majerus were bona fide starters themselves. How easy it was to have tackles with receiver-eligible jerseys on the ends, taking up linebackers’ play action responsibilities on third and short.

But that’s not Morgan’s job anymore. Offensive line coach is, and the line’s been offensive in a different way for a couple years now. Worse, it doesn’t look like it’s getting any better, and that matters a whole lot more to the future success of the football team than any stylistic concerns we’ve got about play-calling or “using the whole field.”

BHGP aren’t the only folks who have noticed a change in Iowa football–so has former Hawkeye QB Drew Tate, currently freezing his foofoo in Saskatchewan:

“You can say all you want about scheme. I won’t get into that with my opinion,” said Tate, who tossed 18 touchdowns last year. “But it just seems, once we got into the second half of the season, every time we played somebody, (expletive), they knew everything we were going to run. They covered up everything. And throw on top of that young receivers that don’t know what’s going on, and I was hurt all last year … I think this year is kind of the same. You’ve got injuries and new guys and the schemes - the schemes are Iowa football.”

Read between the lines, which isn’t hard to do: It’s the schemes. I apologize to Drew Tate for implying that he was a bit of a loon last season. It’s obvious now that he played the way he did so that there would be at least one person on the offense who acted like he cared what happened in the game.

Speaking of the game, well, Iowa’s only hope will be to shut down Illinois’ not-quite-a-spread option attack. On offense they’ll need every last flake of Kinnick Stadium magic just to have a chance. But this team hasn’t scored more than 20 points on anybody but Syracuse all year. Why think they’ll start now? Illini roar to 6-1, but Florida fans know that’s just a wayside on the road to 7-5.

PURDUE @ MICHIGAN

Okay, Purdue came crashing back to earth last week, nearly getting stuffed by tOSU. That’s what October is for: crushing Pete’s delusions of greatness. Now comes a matchup against a Michigan team that didn’t exactly please too many of its fans in last week’s closer-than-it-needed-to-be smashup with Eastern Washtenaw County Michigan. The Wolverine defense just isn’t good. There, I said it. Purdue: spread option. Two words Blue fans would just as soon not hear again this season. Michigan isn’t as bad as everybody thought they were, but Purdue isn’t as bad as they looked last week. Except on defense. There they are that bad. But in a shootout between Michigan and Purdue–and the way these two teams defend, it’s gonna be a shootout–who do you go with? I’ll go with Pete. Gadzooks. The things I have to say this year!

INDIANA @ MICHIGAN STATE

It should be illegal to have to play Indiana and Northwestern in consecutive weeks. It’s the sort of thing that can drive fans of mid-pack Big Ten teams to spend the whole weekend in the basement playing Halo 3.

Has Mark Dantonio finally got Sparty on the right meds? You’ll know in this game. And you’ll know the answer is ‘no’ since IU runs the spread even better than Northwestern does, and Sparty didn’t have an answer for the spread last week.

MINNESOTA @ NORTHWESTERN

You saw what CJ Bacher did to MSU last week. Sparty plays defense. Goldy doesn’t.

KENT STATE @ OHIO STATE

Yup . . . I love me this twelve-game schedule.

WISCONSIN @ PENN STATE

If there’s a watchable game in the Big Ten this week–and I’m not saying there is–this is it. Penn State fans can breathe again, a common aftereffect of playing Iowa lately. Wisconsin needs to regroup following last week’s game when they got schooled by Illinois. But Wisconsin is a tremendously better team than Iowa was last week, mostly since the Badgers have only lost one wide receiver, not thirty-eight of them. This will be classic, grind-’em-out Big Ten football. If you’re in to that sort of thing. In the end, Wisconsin prevails, if only because they have more playmakers on offense. Meaning they have one.

Next week:

• Michigan @ Illinois: Potential seismic implications in this game
• Penn State @ Indiana: These two go together like Twix bars and Sriracha sauce
• North Dakota State @ Minnesota: WHY didn’t Minnesota hire Craig Bohl?
• Northwestern @ Eastern Michigan: The Eagles should just join the Big Ten and get it over with
• Michigan State @ Ohio State: If Sparty is still Sparty, they’ll win this game
• Iowa @ Purdue: Hawks’ last chance to score 20 points before the Minnesota game
• Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin: Playing for the pride of the I-39 corridor

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.06

For the most part, I don’t wanna talk about it. You know, football. Sure, it’s my favorite sport–I mean, pretty much the ONLY sport I follow–but honestly, I’m about ready to sign up for those treatments Jim Carrey got in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind: I don’t care if I have to forget everything as long as I don’t have to remember . . .

I said last week would be an important one in terms of sorting out the conference. It was. It showed that, basically, this year, it’s the Big One. I have Ohio State #2 in my Blogpoll ballot this week, based on the fact that they haven’t played a truly stinky game this year, and their win in Seattle was more impressive than U$C’s. Of course, it’s fair to say that the rest of the Bucks’ schedule is unimpressive (Youngstown State, Akron, Minnesota, Northwestern), but I think that stacks up as the rough equivalent of Idaho, Nebraska, and Washington State. Minnesota has a better offense than Nebraska, after all.

As for the rest of the conference, it’s a wash. It’s a tossup. It’s not even worth considering. Everybody else looks incredibly mortal, and everybody’s just waiting for the cover to get blown.

Speaking of blown coverage, have I mentioned that right now I kinda sorta wish I could forget about football?

WISCONSIN @ ILLINOIS

No team benefited more from last week’s nationwide football crisis than Wisconsin, who once again did just enough to win a game and found themselves #5 in the country, even though I think everybody would feel a whole lot better if they were #13 or so. Thus it behooves the Badgers to lose this game so they no longer need be overrated. And make no mistake, this is a very losable game for Wisky. The match of Illinois and Ron Zook may have taken a while to come to fruition, but why do I have a sneaking feeling that the rest of the conference is going to start looking at the Illini the way gardeners look at zucchini?

MINNESOTA @ INDIANA

Look, everybody knows the Gophers are not a great football team right now. They’re still mistake-prone, and they’ve yet to learn that the defensive backfield must provide, y’know, defense. Comes now the Indiana Hoosiers and their barn-fire offense, not exactly what the Gophers need to see. A win here makes Indiana’s first bowl berth since 1993 practically a layup. Which is always a good term to use when you’re talking about basketball schools . . .

EASTERN MICHIGAN @ MICHIGAN

I’d like to say they can’t, but you know that Anything Is Possible This Year In College Football. Therefore, I must briefly consider the possibility that the Wolverines might lose to a directional school located about 10 miles from its campus.

considerconsiderconsiderconsider . . .

No. The Eagles defense is giving up close to 400 yards a game, and the best team they’ve played so far is either Vanderbilt or Ball State.

NORTHWESTERN @ MICHIGAN STATE

It’s hard to imagine a defining game just six games into Mark Dantonio’s tenure in East Lansing, but here it is. If he wants to forver exorcise Sparty’s mental demons, his team needs to come out strong against the Wildcats and their creepy brand of ninja football™. This is exactly the sort of game Sparty usually lost under both Bobby Williams and John L. Smith: a hanging curveball against a clearly inferior opponent the week after a heartbreaking loss to a good team. I expect Dantonio to bring all kinds of heat against a not-that-bad Northwestern offense, then run the ball right up the middle all day long. It’s a battle between MSU and Illinois for the title of Most Improved Team in the Big Ten; expect this game to make Sparty’s case.

IOWA @ PENN STATE

If this game were a movie, it would have been made in 1988 and it would have starred Wings Hauser and Yaphet Kotto as two cops who can’t stand each other but have to work together to solve a case that has great personal meaning to both of them. Moreover, it would be airing on Starz! at 3:15 on a Wednesday morning, you’d be able to finish every line of dialog before the actors could, and you’d watch about six minutes of it before turning over to The Weather Channel.

(N.b.: Wings Hauser and Yaphet Kotto did, in fact, appear together in a 1987 Perry Mason TV movie.)

OHIO STATE @ PURDUE

Purdue has been putting up arenaball numbers all season. They have yet to face a defense ranked in the top 100 nationally.

Ohio State is a top 2 defense.

Purdue, on the other hand, has the tenth-best defense . . . in the Big Ten. Crikey, they gave up 19 points to Notre Dame!

Next week:

• Illinois @ Iowa: There’s a new I-school genius now
• Purdue @ Michigan: This one will be extremely ugly
• Indiana @ Michigan State: With a possible trip to San Antonio on the line
• Minnesota @ Northwestern: Win now, or watch it all slip away
• Kent State @ Ohio State: Why?
• Wisconsin @ Penn State: Age and experience can’t always beat youth and treachery

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.05

So one week has gone by in the conference season now and we have learned–what? Oh, right, we haven’t learned anything we didn’t already know, apart from the fact that Penn State’s early success was more than a little illusory.

This week, however, is a better sorting-out week than most people probably think. There are a couple contests that may wind up having a huge influence over who will be up at the top with Ohio State and Michigan at the end of the conference season, and a couple more contests which may not look compelling now, but almost certainly will have a lot to do with who winds up in what bowl games at the end of the season. So let’s just take a

*crunch* OWWWWowowowowowowowow . . . owww . . . OW!

Sorry. I was just thinking about Iowa’s wide-receiver situation, and I tore my ACL. Can I bum some Advil from somebody?

PENN STATE @ ILLINOIS

Speaking of a game with massive sorting implications, here’s one. Penn State got exposed last week by Michigan (who appear to be well on their way back, but that’s another preview) while Illinois put together what I think might be their first good defensive performance in the nine seasons I’ve been writing this here column. The Illini flummoxed a not-that-bad Indiana squad by forcing the Hoosiers’ mobile QB to throw the ball, which he did not do very well. The Hoosiers ran for only 134 yards, and totally failed to stop the Illini runners. Well, guess what might be the best possible game plan to beat the Nits? Force AJ Morelli to throw the ball. Just the thought of that is enough to make Penn State fans disgorge their breakfasts.

Hey . . . there’s some neat symmetry here for football fans in Illinois! Not only did the Bears finally bench Rex Grossman, but now, here comes a PSU team that looks an awful lot like the Chicago Bears!

First team to 14 points wins this game. Penn State may have a good defense, but they have exactly ZERO offensive playmakers, and Illinois has several. Much as it’ll bug Orson and Stranko, Zook, I think, will take the Illini to a bowl this year. I can’t believe I just wrote that.

INDIANA @ IOWA

Like I mentioned in previous POTBTs, this is the game where Iowa fell apart last season, leaving the middle of the field and the underneath route wide open all day long while Kellen Lewis and James Hardy simply picked their bones clean. It’s safe to guess that Iowa has spent the week studying film from last week’s Illinois game, and it’s safe to guess that Iowa’s front seven can stuff the run better than Illinois’ can. The real questions are (1) Can the Iowa defense find a way to cover the underneath routes that killed them last year, and (2) can the offense score more than 14 points against a team with a pulse?

Much is made of the Hawks’ numerous injuries at wideout but the cupboard isn’t bare–James Cleveland is serviceable, Colin Sandeman was about the only bright spot in the Iowa offense against Iowa State, and wherever Derrell Johnson-Koulianos lines up, he’s a threat. Add the reality that Iowa played an intense, emotional game against Wisconsin last week after looking so flat the week before, and don’t forget the revenge factor and . . . oh, who am I trying to kid? The Hawks haven’t covered the middle of the field since Bob Sanders left town. Why on earth would anybody think they’d start this week?

OHIO STATE @ MINNESOTA

Which is softer: Ohio State’s non-conference schedule, or Ohio State’s conference schedule? Northwestern and Minnesota back-to-back? Feh.

MICHIGAN @ NORTHWESTERN

Michigan = getting better. Northwestern = not.

NOTRE DAME @ PURDUE

The best of all possible cures for the Irish’s offensive woes: a team that doesn’t play defense. Unfortunately, Purdue doesn’t play defense because Purdue doesn’t have to play defense. Unfortch, the Boilers have lost their top running back. A pity. The best way to beat the Irish is to run the ball, but maybe now ND fans can find out if their secondary is bad too.

MICHIGAN STATE @ WISCONSIN

One of these teams is for real. One of them isn’t. My advice? Go with the team that has the pass rush. Uh, that would be Sparty, who is really starting to give me fits. I keep thinking they’re going to win, which normally means that they should lose, but they haven’t yet. Thus I’m merely being set up for some spectacular failure in a later week. Or maybe this week. Who knows?

Next week:

• Wisconsin @ Illinois: Game delayed 45 minutes because the Badgers’ bus got pulled over for speeding south of Rockford
• Minnesota @ Indiana: A must-win for both teams, but for entirely different reasons
• Eastern Michigan @ Michigan: Disgusting
• Northwestern @ Michigan State: Wait, no, THIS is the one Sparty will lose
• Iowa @ Penn State: Will make the ‘04 game look like Hawaii/Texas Tech
• Ohio State @ Purdue: Hope you enjoyed being undefeated, Pete

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.04

Editor’s note: Mark Hasty is on one of his all-too-frequent Hawkeye-induced “vacations.” We had to go to great lengths to find a guest columnist for this week, but as you’ll see, we succeeded. We found a man who needs no introduction, mostly because he always gives himself one . . .

“This is Howard Cosell, and I realize that my appearance in this space may cause considerable consternation among those of you who believed me to be deceased. Let me assure you that I am. Yet not even my sepulchral sequestration can blind me to the fact that the inaptly and ineptly named Big Ten Conference is nothing more than a bitter, tragic joke. Not only are their counting skills atrocious, but with the possible exceptions of the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions of Pennsylvania State University, no team in the conference can truly be called ‘big.’

“Nevertheless, since opportunities to express my opinion are scarce to come by in my present state of affairs, I am truly honored to pick this week’s games on behalf of the distinguished Mr. Hasty. May he get well soon, and may his exact whereabouts be determined quickly. Now, without further ado, let us turn our attention to the games.”

ILLINOIS @ INDIANA

“The fortunes of the Fighting Illini have fallen dramatically since the days of Harold ‘Red’ Grange and other of his ilk. It is always a tragedy when a once-storied program finds itself in a state of utter collapse. Yet a greater tragedy by far is when a talented and beloved coach passes from this life entirely too soon. Such is the case with the Hoosiers of Indiana University.

“Both these teams, to be quite frank, have overachieved thus far this season. The expectations of both programs were as low as they could be. But how often must the conventional wisdom be proved wrong before we all learn to question that to which everyone is quick to assent?

“These teams match up reasonably well, with Illinois’ rushing attack, Indiana’s unrelenting aerial assault, and neither team’s ability to play wonderful defense. Momentum in football always favors the home team, and I believe that oft-cited dictum will attend here.”

PENN STATE @ MICHIGAN

“Joseph Paterno has been coaching the Penn State Nittany Lions so long that I actually remember him. Though his teams have hit some misfortune both on and off the field in recent years, he has admirably answered the naysayers who regarded him as too old to coach the contemporary student-athlete.

“Meanwhile, the coaching skills of Lloyd Carr have been called into question, and not without some justification. The Wolverines simply have not played like a storied program, but rather like a school which ought to have a compass direction as part of its name.

“Though this game will be played in Michigan Stadium, site of many a legendary battle over the years, I believe that Michigan has already proven what it can do against a quality team. Nothing. Nothing whatsoever. Penn State shall be triumphant, and the calls for Carr’s immediate dismissal will grow ever more shrill.”

PURDUE @ MINNESOTA

“Speaking of tragedy, which we were previously, there is perhaps none more tragic than that which has befallen Minnesota football. It certainly is not the fault of their coach, Tim Brewster, who did not ask the university to fire Glen Mason, the most successful Gopher coach since Bernie Bierman himself. Yet now he finds himself with a team which, as it ever was, cannot defend the pass, at precisely the time that Joe Tiller brings his Air Force squadron to town. Games like this are why college football can never surpass the popularity of the NFL.”

MICHIGAN STATE @ NOTRE DAME

“Ask around the campus of the University of Notre Dame and they will tell you that responsibility for their current misfortune may be laid solely at the feet of one man: Tyrone Willingham, a man who has not been the coach at that storied institution for three seasons. He, they say, is the reason that Charlie Weis, late of the New England Patriots, is experiencing such turmoil in this, his third season.

“Ask again the extent to which Willingham’s own execrable third season was the fault of HIS immediate predecessor, Bob Davie, and you will be met with dull stares and silence.

“Nevertheless, one must be careful not to assume that the difference in attitude towards Weis and Willingham is racial in origin. If there is one thing Jack Roosevelt Robinson and the other pioneers of the black athlete have secured for their progeny, it is the right to be judged on their achievements or lack thereof. If the Fighting Irish wish to cut Weis some additional slack simply because they feel greater affection for the man, that is their prerogative. It is perhaps duplicitous, but it is their prerogative. As for this game, Michigan State shall simply slaughter the Irish, who are a horrible football team right now and are likely to remain such.”

NORTHWESTERN @ OHIO STATE

“I truly apologize, but some things are simply beneath the dignity of a journalist such as myself.”

IOWA @ WISCONSIN

“An interesting philosophical question, one which we all must ponder, is the following: Are my personal strengths stronger than my weakenesses are weak? That question is both relevant and germane to this football game because both of these teams appear to be fatally flawed. The Iowa Hawkeyes have been firm and unyielding on defense, yet to surrender a single touchdown, yet their offense has proven weak. Their opponents, the Badgers of the University of Wisconsin, are quite the opposite. They score points almost at will, yet they yield points almost at their opponent’s will.

“So, then, whose strength is stronger than their weakness is weak?

“Two factors force my hand in choosing this game. Football always favors the home team, all else being equal, which it seldom is, and the game favors the offense, since they are allowed to act, while the defense must react. Thus I must choose the Badgers in this game, a decisive victory for their young coach Bret Bielema, who played for and graduated from the university he must now oppose.”

Next week:

• Penn State @ Illinois: If the Illini are ‘back,’ they need this game
• Indiana @ Iowa: This was the point at which Iowa’s season fell apart last year
• Ohio State @ Minnesota: Look away, look FAR away
• Michigan @ Northwestern: So Michigan DOES play road games! Who knew?
• Notre Dame @ Purdue: Good news, Chuck: Purdue doesn’t play defense
• Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Battle for the Big Ten Dark Horse title

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.03

Okay. How much can you really tell about the Big Ten after two weeks? That it’s a down year for the conference is pretty much a given. The rot goes much deeper than the obvious dead wolverine under the porch. Wisconsin, a more-or-less-consensus top 10 team, nearly didn’t beat UNLV, Ohio State (which is absolutely not in a rebuilding mode!) put up 20 points on Akron, which is about what I expected them to score in the first quarter, and thus far nobody from the pack has stepped up and said, “Excuse me. Right here. RIGHT. HERE.”

One team has, in my estimation, overachieved twice: Michigan State. Once by pummeling a UAB team that wound up giving Florida State all it wanted (not that FSU is FSU any more, but still) and once by keeping Bowling Green’s exuberant offense in check. I’ve been mildly impressed by Indiana through two games as well. The Hoosiers have shown they can hold a lead (albeit barely), something previous IU football teams could not do, except against Iowa, dagnabit. And Northwestern did come back to win their game against Nevada next week. So there’s three teams overachieving right at the moment.

None of this is to say that any of those three are a threat to win the conference. Sure, it could happen, if Ohio State’s defense undergoes a significant collapse against any of the three. But I wouldn’t predict that; would you?

Then there’s Purdue. Through two games they’ve scored more than 100 points and they’re likely to break the half-century mark again this week. But those two wins were against a distracted Toledo team and a I-AA also-ran in Eastern Illinois . . . they merely did what they should have done against those two teams.

As for the rest of the conference? Sorry, not enough evidence. Illinois may be better but may not be better enough, which is why I can confidently say . . .

ILLINOIS @ SYRACUSE

. . . if either team wins this game, it’ll be a miracle.

AKRON @ INDIANA

You know it’s a strange year for the conference when you can honestly say that Indiana has a better offense than Ohio State, and nobody can argue with you.

IOWA @ IOWA STATE

From the outside this looks like an epic mismatch, as a team with a smothering defense (Iowa has yet to give up a touchdown in any phase of the game) takes on a team with a doddering, spastic offense the week after the former team pitched a dominating shutout and the latter team lost to a I-AA directional school. But Iowa’s wins are over Northern Illinois and Syracuse, not exactly two fearsome opponents. Then again, some people would argue that Iowa State is even worse than NIU and the ‘Cuse.

I can’t help but think that this is all part of some brilliant plan by Gene Chizik. He knew that losing to a MAC team and a I-AA school would be forgotten if only the Clones could beat Iowa . . . so he tanked those games and kept Todd Blythe relatively quiet so as to lull the Hawkeyes into a false sense of security. Then I snap to my senses and realize that any plan which involves losing to Kent State and Northern Iowa cannot, by definition, be termed “brilliant.”

Syracuse tried to stop Iowa by stuffing 8 in the box and daring their inexperienced QB to beat them. He did. Gene Chizik knows more about defense than anybody on Syracuse’s staff, to be sure, so I am not looking for Jake Christensen to have a huge day. But in the end, good triumphs over evil. After all, evil passed on Brian Kelly, and what has he done lately?

NOTRE DAME @ MICHIGAN

Admit it–this is the Notre Dame/Michigan game you’ve always wanted to see. One where the teams weren’t playing to establish which was the most legendary legend in all legendry, but one where the loser would be in serious danger of not going to a bowl game. Or even (gasp!) HAVING A LOSING SEASON.

But when you run off to join the Grave Dancers Union, make sure you point out that you’ll be dancing on ND’s grave, because they have got nothing on offense, just some spiky-hairded quarterback who has yet to do anything.

PITT @ MICHIGAN STATE

Only a fool predicts that any trend involving Sparty will continue for more than two weeks at best. But the evidence is there that MSU is more disciplined and stouter on defense than they were under “John L. Smith.” Of course, they’d pretty much have to be. Pitt is banged up severely and lost a top-flight defensive lineman this week, which is never good news when you’re facing a team with two good running backs. Unless that team is Minnesota. Which it isn’t, in this case.

MINNESOTA @ FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Florida Atlantic = NOT the school Penn State brutalized in week 1. This is the one that has Howard Schnellenberger as coach. The Owls are supposed to be pretty good for a Sun Belt team. Conventional wisdom says that even a bad Big Ten team can beat a pretty good Sun Belt team, even at the other team’s stadium. Coach *mumble* turned up the heat in the Gophers’ practice facility this week to get his squad ready for this game. Yeah, but it’s a dry heat. Ain’t no dry heat in Florida.

I really want to say that FAU pulls off the upset but I’m drinking the “Big Ten linemen = better than anybody else” Kool-Aid.

(Three overtimes, natch.)

DUKE @ NORTHWESTERN

There are so many easy and obvious jokes here I’ll just let you fill them in yourself.

OHIO STATE @ WASHINGTON

Like I said last week, TRAP GAME!

Okay, not really. So far Ohio State’s defense has absolutely shut down . . . Youngstown State and Akron. Guuhhhh. Whereas Washington has already ended Boise State’s season for all practical purposes. And have you SEEN that OSU offense? No, you haven’t. Nobody has! It’s sad to say, but 2 of the Big Ten’s ranked teams have an air of fraudulence about them, like they’re just waiting to be exposed. Who better to pants the Bucks than the Huskies, in their stadium?

BUFFALO @ PENN STATE

The Bulls got a rare and much-needed victory last week, absolutely plucking the Temple Owls, 42-7. A trip to Happy Valley is just what they need to keep them from getting all uppity now.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ PURDUE

No, this is not a basketball prediction. But with all these points being scored, the game might last until basketball season.

THE CITADEL @ WISCONSIN

Wisconsin nearly gacked against UNLV last week, as you know. The Citadel really took it to Webber International, which might be a college and might be a human resources firm, I can’t tell.

Next week:

• Illinois @ Indiana: Formerly a push, now pretty much a foregone conclusion
• Penn State @ Michigan: Somebody’s season REALLY ends here
• Purdue @ Minnesota: Making Purdue AGAIN the most fraudulent 4-0 team in the country
• Michigan State @ Notre Dame: This will not be pretty
• Northwestern @ Ohio State: Creepy ninja football beats Michigan, not OSU
• Iowa @ Wisconsin: Indecent exposure

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN, v2007.02

. . . WHERE LLOYD CARR IS OFFICIALLY OFF OUR CHRISTMAS CARD LIST

Why, you ask? Simple.

Thanks to him, now I have to pick all those stupid I-AA Football Championship Subdivision games, because Anything Is Now Possible. Even though you and I know that it’s not.

It’s like this: Big Ten defenses, for whatever reason, just don’t seem to be able to handle spread offenses, especially when those offenses are executed well. For proof of this . . . well, geesh, where do I begin? How about with last year’s Iowa/Indiana game, where Terry Hoeppner’s variant of the spread just destroyed Kirk Ferentz’s version of the Cover 2? The Michigan/Appy State game had to look familiar to any Hawkeye fan, accustomed as we are to sitting in stunned disbelief, wondering why there is absolutely no one covering the space inside the hash marks.

The solution, if the conference is going to maintain any credibility whatsoever, is simple: More Big Ten teams need to run the spread. That’s the only way to raise the level of defensive execution. Otherwise, the endless thaw/freeze cycle of great conference competition followed by bowl-game debacles will leave the Big Ten as rough and nauseating as I-90 across southern Minnesota. Only if failure to stop the spread offense becomes a threat to winning the conference will the Big Ten ever recover its national reputation.

But remember, I said that Big Ten teams only struggled against those schools who ran the spread well. Thus, in the long run, Michigan losing to Appy State might be an embarassment, but it won’t lead to change. For that to happen, some school like Northwestern or Indiana needs to ride their creepy brand of ninja football all the way to Pasadena. Which ain’t happening this year.

I biffed on Bowling Green over coach *mumble*’s Gophers last week, and would have missed on the obvious game, but I nailed everything else last week, so put me at 9-2 for the season. Dang it.

WESTERN ILLINOIS @ ILLINOIS

Illinois proved it could score even without Juice Williams last week. The Angry Indigenous Woodlands People also proved that their patented Matador Defense is still intact, and until they can give up fewer points than they can score, it’s going to be a long season. WIU isn’t all that bad–but they’re no Appy State.

Of course, Illinois’s no Michigan, either. And Ron Zook is no Llo . . . wait. Gobs of star recruits, inexplicable inability to make the pieces fit together . . . maybe Ron Zook IS Lloyd Carr.

MACOMB 13

GO HOME 44

INDIANA @ WESTERN MICHIGAN

In a game which will reverberate all the way from Niles to Mishawaka, Indiana joins the short list of Big Ten teams willing to play a MAC team on the road. The Hoosiers were pretty sharp last week in their dismantling of Indiana State, but then that’s what you would expect. It’s trendy right now to see this as likely being a close game, and Indiana’s unproven defense didn’t prove much in week one, but when IU gets its offense in sync, they can move the ball against anyone, and that certainly includes the Broncos. So I don’t see this as being a very close game.

LYNCH 45

FLINCH 24

SYRACUSE @ IOWA

Last year’s Syracuse game served as a not-so-distant early warning to the Hawkeye faithful that Something Was Not Right. Drew Tate was a last-minute scratch and the offense proved offensive, forcing the defense to win the game–literally, with a goal-line stand being the only reason the Hawks came out of the Carrier Dome with a victory.

This year the Northern Illinois opener gave Iowa fans a good idea of what to expect–a smothering defense and a powerful running game without much in the way of an aerial attack. Jake Christensen was no better than okay in the opener, but nobody can complain about how the defense played last week. Christensen and the o-line had better improve quickly, because the Orange would love nothing more than to replace last year’s near-upset with this year’s upset. In the end, Iowa should wear down Syracuse’s defense, but if this game is tied at the half–or even if the Hawks are down by ten points–I won’t be totally shocked. Sad, frightened, and confused, certainly–but not totally shocked.

REMEMBER 44? WE DO 13

REMEMBER 2006? WE DO 28

OREGON @ MICHIGAN

Look, Michigan didn’t play well last week, but they’re not a bad football team, just an ill-prepared one. The only real question is whether one week is enough time to plug a few of the holes from last week’s depantsing. The predictocracy is calling for a swift bounceback this week, suggesting that (a) people think Oregon isn’t as good as Appy State(?) or (b) Lloyd Carr has finally found some emotion and passion somewhere and has instantly installed that in his football team. I find both to be doubtful propositions.

What isn’t doubtful is that Googling the phrase “smothering oregon defense” yields nothing positive about the Ducks football team, so get set for a wild one, one of those “last team with the ball wins” sort of affairs.

DUCK! DUCK! 43

COOKED GOOSE 44

BOWLING GREEN @ MICHIGAN STATE

Okay, UAB might be supernaturally bad, but so, apparently, is Minnesota. Mark Dantonio had a strong showing in his debut, with Sparty’s offense looking positively ferocious. Can he keep it going this week? Sure. Why not? BGSU almost lost to Minnesota, for cryin’ out loud.

UNIVERSITY OF ALMOST TOLEDO 10

WELL UNDER THE RADAR 44

FAKE MIAMI @ MINNESOTA

Coach *mumble* would up face down on the Metrodome turf after last week’s game, proving that what he lacks in experience, he makes up for in bravery. I wouldn’t even use the bathrooms at the Humpty Dump. *mumble* proved he can make some adjustments, abandoning a dreadful passing game in favor of a rushing attack in the second half, but just like his predecessor and his predecessor’s predecessor, he sorta forgot there are TWO phases to the game. It was a great comeback, but when a MAC team goes for two in the first OT in your stadium, uh, that’s an indication that they don’t respect your defense at all.

Now if only Fake Miami had an offense . . .

ROETHLISBERGER 21

RUTHLESS BUNGLERS 42

NEVADA @ NORTHWESTERN

Nevada has a good defense but a very one-dimensional offense. Northwestern isn’t a defensive powerhouse but, as you might expect, they play pretty smart and sneaky offense. Nevada may have left some pieces of their soul in Lincoln last weekend, while Northwestern wasn’t brilliant versus Northeastern, but I think Pat Fitzgerald’s squad can overpower the Wolf Pack. Maybe.

DOGS 24

CATS 28

AKRON @ OHIO STATE

Lorem ipsum loquitur . . .

WHERE THE RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD 0

WHERE MAC TEAMS GO TO GET PAID 56

NOTRE DAME @ PENN STATE

Last week’s FIU game revealed nothing about Penn State. Last week’s Georgia Tech game revealed a lot about the Domers. Jimmy Clausen will start at quarterback against a Penn State defense that won’t be impressed with him. At all.

CRUNCHY PICKLES 0

GRILLED STICKIES 48

EASTERN ILLINOIS @ PURDUE

Imisdibus yumidsibus wealmisdibus . . .

TONY ROMO U 18

DREW BREES U 44

WISCONSIN @ UNLV

The last time Wisconsin played at Sam Boyd Stadium, the power just happened to go out just after the game became official and just before the Badgers were about to cover the spread. I’m not saying anything, I’m just saying that if the power goes out all over Las Vegas on Friday night . . .

BEER AND BRATS 45

BEER AND SLOTS 10

Next week:

• Illinois at Syracuse: The ‘Cuse finally gets a Big Ten win
• Akron at Indiana: OSU softened ‘em up for the Hoosiers
• Iowa at Iowa State: Dumping chlorine in the Gene pool
• Notre Dame at Michigan: Wow, who cares NOW?
• Pittsburgh at Michigan State: Dantonio and Wannstedt have met before
• Minnesota at Florida Atlantic: A game to build the reputation of the Big Ten Network
• Duke at Northwestern: Duke football is the gift that keeps on giving
• Ohio State at Washington: TRAP GAME!
• Buffalo at Penn State: Um . . .
• Central Michigan at Purdue: Now that Brian Kelly is gone, this game is a dud
• The Citadel at Wisconsin: Thanks, Lloyd

PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN V07.01

Yes, in fact, I am ready for some football. And just in time too! Yeah . . . just in time to not see the games since they’re all going to be on a network currently being beamed only to three very confused Lithuanian department-store security guards who do not understand the strange behavior of the Americans who inexplicably have shown up on their closed-circuit TV system and would really like the camera in the Juniors department to start working again.

Since we’re in the spirit of taking things away, I might as well tell you I’ve made a slight policy change: I will no longer be previewing those stupid I-AA exhibition games. Life is too short to Google Indiana State football. I might make exceptions for those games where I think there’s a chance of the hydrant soaking the dog and not vice versa. But otherwise . . . no. These games do not exist to me. I understand why they’re played and why they’re important. But they’re every bit as worthless as NFL preseason games, and I don’t care about those either.

Of course that means there are only 1.5 good games in the Big Ten this week, and that’s coming from three games which could be halfway good. The real football starts next week.

MISSOURI @ ILLINOIS @ ST. LOUIS, WHICH LAST I KNEW WAS IN MISSOURI AND NOT ILLINOIS BUT WHO ASKED ME?

Okay, I used to do a Pickin’ on the Big XII too, back before I had multiple children, so I am familiar with theoeuvre of Gary Pinkel. I think he’s a good coach but not necessarily a great one who is stuck at a school where football just doesn’t matter, not at all. He did a decent job last season, perhaps because expectations were low after Brad Smith finally graduated, and perhaps because he was sitting on such a hot seat that his office smelled like seared bumflesh. This year many are looking to Mizzou as a team that could make a run at the Big XII North, a division which defines the term “leadership vacuum.”

Zook we know about, him and his great recruiting classes and his larder of highly-regard recruits who under his tutelage manage to win the same two games every year. He’s a got a great weapon in Is*CLANK*i*FWOOSH*ah *plop* “Juice” *scramblescrambleSACK* Will*INT!*iams, but somehow that didn’t seem to work out too well last season. Oh well. There’s no QB controversy in Urbaign this season, only the question of who will double Zook’s win total with his recruits next season. Winning this game would be a powerful statement about the return of Illinois football . . . or the immnent arrival of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
IN THE CHASE 37
IN THE DRINK 13

NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ IOWA @ SOLDIER FIELD, WHICH IS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS NOT IOWA, SO OBVIOUSLY IT’S TIME TO RETURN GEOGRAPHY TO SCHOOL CURRICULA

Oh, trust me–this is a very losable game for the Hawkeyes. New QB, minus a couple wide receivers, which is not a position the Hawks were deep at to begin with, a huge off-field distraction the week before the season opener . . . it doesn’t matter than NIU will be breaking in a new running back; at this point, Larry Csonka could give the Hawkeyes fits. Iowa fans know there’s one game every season where the team never gets off the bus mentally . . . this had better not be it. But I’m worried.
TAILBACK U 17
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT IOWA CITY 28

UAB @ MICHIGAN STATE AND WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT, THE GAME’S ACTUALLY BEING PLAYED IN EAST LANSING

And thus begins the Mark Dantonio era at MSU, against a team that caused a little trouble for some decent programs last season and probably, talentwise, is a little ahead of Minnesota. Dantonio’s Cincy teams were always well-balanced and there’s a better-than-0% shot that Sparty could start the season 3-0 and ranked around #24 before heading off to Notre Dame on the 22nd of September. But there’s a better-than-0% shot that they could gack away this game, too. I think they hold on, but I would not want to be that Detroit radio guy’s cardiologist come early November.
ROMAN GOD STATUE 10
GREEK WARRIOR REPLICA 21

BOWLING GREEN @ MINNESOTA, WHOSE STADIUM IS NOT YET ON CAMPUS

The new Minnesota coach, *Mumble*, swears he’s going to turn around the attitude towards Gopher football in a city and a state that looks upon college football in general and Gopher football in particular like a dish of tater tot casserole mistaken left on the kitchen cupboard overnight. *Mumble* had better be careful. It is possible for Minnesota sports fans to care less about Gopher football than they already do. Here’s one of the half-good games, folks. Minnesota could make a serious run at the MAC title this season.
ROOSTERS 17
BREWSTERS 23

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL @ PENN STATE

I said I wasn’t gonna pick the I-AA games. I still feel compelled to pick this one even though FIU might not be able to go .500 in I-AA.

Oh, wait, it’s actually the Football Championship Subdivision, which sounds like something you’d find on the outskirts of Tuscaloosa. Whatever. Just by mentioning this game I’ve already said too much.
THROWN TO THE LIONS 0
LIONS 66

PURDUE @ TOLEDO

Yeah, I know . . . AT?

Well, Joe Tiller saved his job last year, and Toledo is under the eyes of the NCAA these days, so there’s not much doubt about how this game will go. But then the only certainty in Purdue football these days is at least 4 losses.

BOILERMAKERS 34
JEEP JOCKEYS 28

WASHINGTON STATE @ WISCONSIN

Talk about split opinions . . . either Bill Doba is or isn’t a genius, apparently. Which is true of all of us I suppose. Nobody’s overlooking the Pac-10 this year, which promises to give us lots of exciting football, but Wazzu probably doesn’t have the offensive blast power to overcome Bielema’s typically stout scoring defense, especially not this early in the season, and especially not especially not at Camp Randall.

PALOUSE 12
LA, TREK! 44
(Editor’s note: This may be the most subtle scoreline in the history of POTBT . . . and there have been some even I didn’t get)

Next week:

• Indiana @ Western Michigan: Or, if you prefer, the South Bend/Niles metroplex
• Syracuse @ Iowa: Like macaroni salad, revenge is a dish best served cold–but by who?
• Oregon @ Michigan: No, but it COULD happen
• Bowling Green @ Michigan State: BGSU should just join the Big Ten and get it over with
• Fake Miami @ Minnesota: Minnesota should just join the MAC and get it over with
• Nevada @ Northwestern: Future casino operators v. the bored yuppies who will one day flock to them
• Akron @ Ohio State: At least it’s a short bus ride
• Notre Dame @ Penn State: Week 2, but somebody’s season effectively ends here
• Wisconsin @ UNLV: I already used my joke for the Northwestern game

PALE, RESTED AND READY: THE PICKIN’ ON THE BIG TEN SEASON PREVIEW

Once again, the smell of pigskin is in the air, with a couple of leaves starting to go yellow here in Wisconsin (the state where summer is a long weekend), so it’s time for a slightly young man’s fancy to turn severely to thoughts of football.

And, once again, my customary flippancy must be tempered by sadness. For the second year in a row, a Big Ten coach has passed away during the off-season. Indiana’s Terry Hoeppner passed away in June, succumbing to the brain cancer that kept him off the IU sidelines for part of last season. Bill Lynch, the former Ball State head coach, takes over at least for now.

So, we leave the snark behind until . . . wait for it . . . NOW.

IN REVIEW: THE POSTSEASON NEVER HAPPENED

In what has to be a first, not a single Big Ten team played in a bowl game following the 2006 season. Shut up. You know it’s true.

THE COACHING SITUATION IS ALWAYS IN FLUX

Bill Lynch, as previously mentioned, takes over at Indiana. This means that in a few years he’s moved from the fourth-best coaching job in Indiana to the third-best.

Michigan State finally discovered “John L. Smith” was just Lou Tepper under an assumed name, so he got the gate, and Cincinnati’s Mark Dantonio takes over, becoming the latest pigskin psychologist to try to manage Sparty’s bipolarity.

Minnesota finally realized Glen Mason was never going to crack seven wins, so he too is gone, replaced by Tim Brewster, who I’m sure somebody out there has heard of.

But enough about that. The real question is, who’s in trouble if they don’t make something happen this year? That’s probably a very short list, starting with “Ron” and ending with “Zook.” Sure, some other coaches will feel some heat–even the exalted ground beneath Kirk Ferentz’s feet is looking a little shaky these days. But I think, barring a major letdown by somebody else, Zook is the only coach who might be doomed without a big improvement. SEGUE!

ILLINOIS: FLIP THIS HOUSE

Yup, the Zooker had better flip one house, or he’ll have to flip another. (Sorry. In the offseason the TV is permatuned to HGTV. Not my idea, but I got outvoted, 1-1.) Now, far be it from me to brag, but it seems to me that I wrote this two seasons ago:

As already mentioned, Ron Zook takes over for The Brother Of Norv. We already know that he and Larry Eustachy have independently arrived at the conclusion that nothing good ever comes of middle-aged coaches going anywhere near a frat house after midnight. We also know that, if that wasn’t the reason he got whacked at Florida, his firing was probably unfair. He did OK with Spurrier’s players, and proved himself to be a good recruiter. (You’ll know this for certain this year or next, when Urban Meyer plays for a national title with Zook’s players.) So Indigenous Woodlands People fans have good reason to be optimistic.

As usual, ignore me at your own peril. There still isn’t anybody arguing with Zook’s ability to recruit. If anything his reputation has improved, since he’s still getting great classes and now he’s getting them at Illinois. But since he has the hands-down most-frightening player in the conference (QB Isiah ‘Juice’ Williams), he’d better show some improvement in his third season. Everybody knows he inherited a team with less athletic talent than the marching band which took the field at halftime. But that’s no longer true. And the skips on this year’s schedule are Michigan State and Purdue. So the Illini had better start fast and speed up. Ending Missouri’s dark-horse run in the season opener would be a Very Good Thing.

INDIANA: [blank]

What CAN you say, really? This season looked SO promising, as the Hoosiers finally started to get traction midway through last season, only narrowly missing their first bowl game since 1993. But that’s over now. The mood of the season switches from anticipation to survival, though just as with Northwestern last year it would be unwise to curse this team with lowered expectations. Still, sigh. At least they don’t have to play Michigan or Ohio State. If their offense can rally and pull the team together, they have a shot at a bowl. But it won’t be easy, and they may not come out of the non-conference season unscathed.

IOWA: FERENTZ TAKES A MULLIGAN

It’s a fine line between “fierce competitor” and “liability,” and if Iowa fans weren’t sure which side of that line QB Drew Tate was on last season, they’re probably not alone. Tate went from Heisman candidate to benched.

For a guy like Kirk Ferentz who has made a career by making somebodies out of nobodies, now he faces a different problem: taking somebodies and keeping them somebodies. The Hawks are getting a better class of recruit these days, but that isn’t making it any easier to keep winning. Obviously.

Like Indiana, the Hawks skip Michigan and Ohio State this season, and their non-conference schedule looks easy. But unless QB Jake Christensen gets in the groove early, the first three games could be disastrous. Northern Illinois isn’t the MACrifice they once were, Syracuse nearly got the Hawks last season, and Iowa State has a shiny new golden-boy coach. Hawk fans should be prepared for any number of wins between 4 and 10 . . . it’s just too hard to call.

MICHIGAN: THE SEASON IS UNNECESSARY, THE WOLVERINES HAVE ALREADY WON

Or at least that seems to be the consensus. Hard to argue with it too, since Lloyd Carr’s team returns more quality talent than anyone else in the conference.

If there is a question, and I’m not saying there is, the question will be how the Wolverines can survive being the clear frontrunner in the conference, a position they have not been in for several years. This season it doesn’t even look like they’ll be fighting with Ohio State for conference dominance–Wisconsin looks like the clear #2 team in the Big Ten this season. But with a non-conference schedule that includes Appalachian State and (shudder) Eastern Michigan, the Wolverines will be to seven wins before you know. Even without Indiana and Iowa on the schedule.

MICHIGAN STATE: MEET THE NEW BOSS

Probably not the same as the old boss. Probably. With Drew Stanton gone and a quirky defense returning, trying to adjust to a new coaching staff, it’s very easy to look askance at Sparty’s hopes for ‘07. But Dantonio has engineered quarterbacks before, and his ‘crack the whip’ style might accidentally cause the Spartans to start playing smart football. That alone would justify the coaching change. No Illinois or Purdue games this season.

MINNESOTA: THERE ISN’T A GOOD HEADLINE HERE EITHER

You know why.

Enter Tim Brewster (who?), tight ends coach for the Denver Broncos, taking over just as the university begins serious work on its forthcoming on-campus football stadium. Can Brewster generate some excitement in a town not notorious for loving Gopher football? Can he at least continue Glen Mason’s tradition of making it to fifth-tier bowl games? Especially given all the talent he’ll have to replace? Again, pretty hard to predict. It would help if he could beat North Dakota State by more than one point.

NORTHWESTERN: FIND ANOTHER WAY

If last season was a writeoff, this season can’t be. Randy Walker had made Northwestern into a solid mid-pack Big Ten team prior to his death last offseason. Pat Fitzgerald didn’t have enough time to get the Wildcats’ house back in order last year, so if it turned out an underwhelming season, who can really be upset? This year, though, there can’t be as many excuses. Last season’s team was green, this season’s is more experienced. Same goes for the coach. But maybe NU can rattle off three straight to start the year (Northeastern, Nevada, Duke), which might start the Purple Passion going. No Penn State or Wisconsin games this season.

OHIO STATE: NOT RELOADING, REBUILDING

Sorry, Bucknuts, but it’s true. After stinking it up in the national title game and watching almost every name player take off, the proper term to follow “re-” is “build.” As in, it ain’t gonna be like last year. True, an untested Buckeye is probably still a pretty good player, and Jim Tressel can coach a team up to potential, but still, #3 in the conference. MAYBE #2 if Wisconsin’s success from last season turns out to be more a gift from the scheduling gods than the result of anything Bret Bielema did. But not #1. Not this year. So join the rest of us who just watch the games because they’re fun. But you won’t watch Iowa or Indiana games this season.

PENN STATE: NO, HE’S NOT

Retiring. We bring it up every year for no good reason. Only God knows when Paterno will hang it up, and you know what I’m implying.

It was a pretty not-too-bad season last season for the Nits, spoiled only by some ugly non-football stuff. If any coach can smooth those troubled waters, it’s JoePa, particularly if he can rattle off a nice string of victories to start the season. Game #2 is Notre Dame, though, and even if they’re coming to Happy Valley, that’s no gimme. Look, no Minnesota or Northwestern! Uh, that may not be a good thing.

PURDUE: TIMING IS EVERYTHING

And Joe Tiller picked an excellent time to have a pretty good season last year–I thought he was a goner. Look for more basketball-on-grass from Pete’s offense this year, and maybe the defense will stiffen up too. And maybe some year I’ll actually care enough about Purdue football to bother researching them a little bit.

WISCONSIN: LUCKY, GOOD, OR BOTH?

Everyone should have a first year on the job like Bret Bielema. Even though Barry Alvarez’s shadow is only slightly smaller than Vince Lombardi’s in Wisconsin, he managed to make his case with a 12-1 season that far surpassed anyone’s expectations.

But that was last year.

Now what?

John Stocco is gone, but then again, Bielema only has to replace John Stocco. Tyler Donovan has enough game experience to give the Badger freaks a little breathing room. The defense promises to be just as good as last year’s squad. But let’s face it, Wisconsin got a HUGE boost from the schedule gods last year, not having to face Michigan and Ohio State, neither of which they would’ve beaten (in all likelihood). They’re both back on the schedule, while Purdue and Michigan State rotate off. Making another bowl game shouldn’t be a problem, but reliving last year’s success might be tougher. We’ll just have to see what Bielema and his Badgers are made of.

SPOILER ALERT!!

Since I’m never wrong about these things, you might as well take this to the bank.

1. Michigan
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Iowa
6. Indiana
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. Michigan State
10. Northwestern
11. Minnesota